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皇家或破产
简介
本页的目的是回答这样的问题：“如果我有 2,000 美元的资金，那么在破产之前我拿到同花大顺的概率是多少？”本页中的信息不会增加玩家的胜算，但如果玩家的目标是拿到同花大顺或破产，这些信息可能有助于玩家规划预算。
除了“皇家或爆牌”表格外，我们还将分析在双2点百搭牌游戏中击中四张2点或更好的牌所需的资金。我们还提供一张表格，用于计算以25点或更高牌为目标的爆牌概率（在非百搭牌游戏中，四张同点牌或更好的牌是四张同点牌，在2点百搭牌游戏中，皇家或更好的牌是百搭）。
所有牌桌的投注金额均以全额投注计算。例如，在1美元的游戏中，投注金额为100美元，则投注金额为500美元，因为玩家每次应该投注5个硬币，在本例中为5美元。
游戏
以下是本次分析涵盖的游戏列表。
游戏概要
| 缩写 | 姓名 | 完整赔付表 | 皇家概率 | 返回 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9-6 DDB | 双倍双倍奖金 | 1,1,3,4,6,9,50,80,160,160,400,50,800 | 40799分之1 | 98.98% |
| 9-6 工作 | 杰克或更好 | 1,2,3,4,6,9,25,50,800 | 40391分之1 | 99.54% |
| 首脑计划工作队 | 全额支付Deuces Wild | 1,2,2,3,5,9,15,25,200,800 | 45282分之1 | 100.76% |
| 非小细胞肺癌 | 不那么丑的鸭子（ Deuces Wild ） | 1,2,3,4,4,10,16,25,200,800 | 43456分之1 | 99.73% |
| 10-7 DB | 双倍奖金 | 1,1,3,5,7,10,50,80,160,50,800 | 48048分之1 | 100.17% |
| 8-5 BP | 红利扑克 | 1,2,3,4,5,8,25,40,80,50,800 | 40233分之1 | 99.17% |
| FPJ | 全额支付Joker Wild | 1(国王),1,2,3,5,7,20,50,100,200,800 | 41214分之1 | 100.65% |
| FPA8 | 全额支付Aces 和 Eights | 1,2,3,4,5,8,25,50,80,50,800 | 40233分之1 | 99.78% |
皇家或破产
在我看来，娱乐性赌徒通常周末的目标是赢一次皇家大注，一旦赢了，他们就会立即停止游戏。下表旨在解答不同资金规模和常见游戏的赢钱概率问题。
例如，假设一位玩家拥有 2,000 美元的资金，正在玩 9-6 J 或更好牌，赔率为 25 美分。视频扑克玩家应该始终下注的全额赌注是五张 25 美分硬币，即 1.25 美元。这样，他的资金为 2,000 美元/1.25 美元 = 1,600 次下注。表格显示，该玩家在爆牌前有 78.03% 的概率击中皇家牌。
皇家或破产
| 资金 | 9-6 DDB | 9-6 工作 | 首脑计划工作队 | 非小细胞肺癌 | 10-7 DB | 8-5 BP | FPJ | FPA8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 6.26% | 9.05% | 12.08% | 8.52% | 9.10% | 7.89% | 11.72% | 9.51% |
| 200 | 12.12% | 17.27% | 22.73% | 16.32% | 17.34% | 15.16% | 22.13% | 18.11% |
| 300 | 17.62% | 24.78% | 32.08% | 23.46% | 24.86% | 21.85% | 31.29% | 25.88% |
| 400 | 22.78% | 31.59% | 40.25% | 29.96% | 31.70% | 28.04% | 39.35% | 32.91% |
| 500 | 27.62% | 37.77% | 47.50% | 35.93% | 37.93% | 33.69% | 46.51% | 39.29% |
| 600 | 32.15% | 43.37% | 53.84% | 41.36% | 43.56% | 38.92% | 52.82% | 45.03% |
| 700 | 36.40% | 48.48% | 59.41% | 46.38% | 48.69% | 43.74% | 58.39% | 50.26% |
| 800 | 40.38% | 53.12% | 64.34% | 50.95% | 53.38% | 48.17% | 63.27% | 54.96% |
| 900 | 44.10% | 57.34% | 68.64% | 55.15% | 57.61% | 52.26% | 67.57% | 59.24% |
| 1000 | 47.61% | 61.21% | 72.42% | 58.99% | 61.49% | 56.03% | 71.38% | 63.12% |
| 1100 | 50.89% | 64.73% | 75.76% | 62.50% | 65.00% | 59.51% | 74.72% | 66.63% |
| 1200 | 53.96% | 67.91% | 78.69% | 65.67% | 68.19% | 62.70% | 77.70% | 69.79% |
| 1300 | 56.84% | 70.81% | 81.25% | 68.59% | 71.08% | 65.66% | 80.34% | 72.67% |
| 1400 | 59.55% | 73.46% | 83.51% | 71.26% | 73.73% | 68.36% | 82.64% | 75.24% |
| 1500 | 62.09% | 75.86% | 85.49% | 73.69% | 76.13% | 70.89% | 84.70% | 77.59% |
| 1600 | 64.46% | 78.03% | 87.23% | 75.90% | 78.29% | 73.20% | 86.50% | 79.74% |
| 1700 | 66.69% | 80.01% | 88.74% | 77.97% | 80.27% | 75.31% | 88.08% | 81.68% |
| 1800 | 68.77% | 81.81% | 90.10% | 79.83% | 82.05% | 77.23% | 89.48% | 83.42% |
| 1900 | 70.72% | 83.46% | 91.29% | 81.54% | 83.67% | 79.04% | 90.71% | 84.99% |
| 2000 | 72.56% | 84.95% | 92.33% | 83.11% | 85.15% | 80.68% | 91.79% | 86.43% |
| 2100 | 74.28% | 86.30% | 93.26% | 84.52% | 86.49% | 82.23% | 92.77% | 87.72% |
| 2200 | 75.88% | 87.54% | 94.08% | 85.85% | 87.70% | 83.62% | 93.61% | 88.89% |
| 2300 | 77.39% | 88.67% | 94.79% | 87.06% | 88.81% | 84.91% | 94.37% | 89.94% |
| 2400 | 78.80% | 89.69% | 95.42% | 88.17% | 89.84% | 86.11% | 95.03% | 90.89% |
| 2500 | 80.13% | 90.63% | 95.97% | 89.17% | 90.76% | 87.21% | 95.61% | 91.75% |
| 2600 | 81.38% | 91.49% | 96.47% | 90.10% | 91.59% | 88.22% | 96.13% | 92.54% |
| 2700 | 82.54% | 92.26% | 96.90% | 90.95% | 92.35% | 89.15% | 96.59% | 93.25% |
| 2800 | 83.63% | 92.96% | 97.26% | 91.71% | 93.04% | 90.00% | 96.99% | 93.88% |
| 2900 | 84.65% | 93.59% | 97.59% | 92.41% | 93.67% | 90.78% | 97.34% | 94.45% |
| 3000 | 85.61% | 94.16% | 97.88% | 93.06% | 94.25% | 91.51% | 97.66% | 94.98% |
| 3100 | 86.51% | 94.68% | 98.13% | 93.65% | 94.78% | 92.18% | 97.93% | 95.46% |
| 3200 | 87.36% | 95.16% | 98.35% | 94.20% | 95.26% | 92.80% | 98.17% | 95.90% |
| 3300 | 88.15% | 95.60% | 98.55% | 94.70% | 95.69% | 93.37% | 98.39% | 96.29% |
| 3400 | 88.89% | 96.00% | 98.73% | 95.15% | 96.09% | 93.89% | 98.59% | 96.65% |
| 3500 | 89.58% | 96.36% | 98.88% | 95.57% | 96.43% | 94.38% | 98.75% | 96.96% |
| 3600 | 90.23% | 96.69% | 99.02% | 95.95% | 96.76% | 94.83% | 98.90% | 97.25% |
| 3700 | 90.84% | 96.99% | 99.14% | 96.30% | 97.05% | 95.24% | 99.03% | 97.51% |
| 3800 | 91.42% | 97.26% | 99.25% | 96.61% | 97.32% | 95.61% | 99.15% | 97.75% |
| 3900 | 91.96% | 97.51% | 99.34% | 96.90% | 97.57% | 95.96% | 99.25% | 97.96% |
| 4000 | 92.46% | 97.73% | 99.42% | 97.17% | 97.79% | 96.28% | 99.34% | 98.15% |
| 5000 | 96.04% | 99.13% | 99.84% | 98.85% | 99.14% | 98.37% | 99.81% | 99.32% |
| 6000 | 97.92% | 99.65% | 99.96% | 99.53% | 99.67% | 99.28% | 99.95% | 99.75% |
| 7000 | 98.92% | 99.86% | 99.99% | 99.81% | 99.88% | 99.68% | 99.99% | 99.91% |
| 8000 | 99.43% | 99.94% | 100.00% | 99.92% | 99.95% | 99.86% | 100.00% | 99.97% |
| 9000 | 99.70% | 99.98% | 100.00% | 99.97% | 99.98% | 99.94% | 100.00% | 99.99% |
| 10000 | 99.85% | 99.99% | 100.00% | 99.99% | 99.99% | 99.97% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 11000 | 99.92% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 99.99% | 100.00% | 99.99% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 12000 | 99.96% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 13000 | 99.98% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 14000 | 99.99% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 15000 | 99.99% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
以下是每局游戏中获得同花大顺所需的平均资金。
- 9-6 双倍奖金：1547.76
- 9-6 J或更好：1056.41
- 全额支付 Deuces Wild：777.43
- 不那么丑的鸭子 Deuces Wild：1123.74
- 10-7 双倍奖金：1049.43
- 8-5奖金扑克：1216.61
- 全额支付 Joker Wild：799.79
- 8-5 A和8：1002.47
赢200或破产
下表显示在两张 Deuces Wild 游戏中，凑成四张 2 点或更好的牌（赔率为 1 比 200）的概率。此外，在全额赔付的 Joker Wild（K 或更好牌）游戏中，凑成五张同点或更好的牌（赔率为 200）的概率也相同。
赢 200 或以上或破产
| 资金 | 首脑计划工作队 | 非小细胞肺癌 | FPJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 二十五 | 9.33% | 7.83% | 6.90% |
| 50 | 17.78% | 15.06% | 13.30% |
| 75 | 25.45% | 21.72% | 19.26% |
| 100 | 32.39% | 27.84% | 24.82% |
| 125 | 38.70% | 33.50% | 29.98% |
| 150 | 44.43% | 38.71% | 34.80% |
| 175 | 49.61% | 43.51% | 39.28% |
| 200 | 54.31% | 47.95% | 43.45% |
| 225 | 58.55% | 52.03% | 47.33% |
| 250 | 62.42% | 55.79% | 50.95% |
| 275 | 65.93% | 59.25% | 54.33% |
| 300 | 69.11% | 62.45% | 57.46% |
| 325 | 71.99% | 65.39% | 60.38% |
| 350 | 74.60% | 68.11% | 63.11% |
| 375 | 76.97% | 70.61% | 65.64% |
| 400 | 79.12% | 72.91% | 68.00% |
| 425 | 81.06% | 75.04% | 70.20% |
| 450 | 82.83% | 77.00% | 72.24% |
| 475 | 84.43% | 78.80% | 74.16% |
| 500 | 85.88% | 80.46% | 75.93% |
| 600 | 90.45% | 85.90% | 81.89% |
| 700 | 93.55% | 89.83% | 86.39% |
| 800 | 95.64% | 92.66% | 89.76% |
| 900 | 97.06% | 94.71% | 92.30% |
| 1000 | 98.01% | 96.18% | 94.22% |
| 1100 | 98.65% | 97.25% | 95.66% |
| 1200 | 99.09% | 98.01% | 96.73% |
| 1300 | 99.38% | 98.57% | 97.55% |
| 1400 | 99.58% | 98.96% | 98.15% |
| 1500 | 99.72% | 99.25% | 98.61% |
| 1600 | 99.81% | 99.46% | 98.96% |
| 1700 | 99.87% | 99.61% | 99.22% |
| 1800 | 99.91% | 99.72% | 99.41% |
| 1900 | 99.94% | 99.80% | 99.56% |
| 2000 | 99.96% | 99.85% | 99.67% |
| 2100 | 99.97% | 99.89% | 99.75% |
| 2200 | 99.98% | 99.92% | 99.81% |
| 2300 | 99.99% | 99.94% | 99.86% |
| 2400 | 99.99% | 99.96% | 99.89% |
| 2500 | 99.99% | 99.97% | 99.92% |
| 2600 | 100.00% | 99.98% | 99.94% |
| 2700 | 100.00% | 99.98% | 99.96% |
| 2800 | 100.00% | 99.99% | 99.97% |
| 2900 | 100.00% | 99.99% | 99.98% |
| 3000 | 100.00% | 99.99% | 99.98% |
以下是每场比赛赢得 200 或更多胜利所需的平均资金。
- 全额支付 Deuces Wild：255.90
- 不那么丑的鸭子 Deuces Wild：306.79
- 全额支付 Joker Wild：351.40
赢 25 或以上或爆牌
下表显示了不同资金规模下，赢得25或以上赔率的概率。我选择25是因为在没有百搭牌的游戏中，四条的最低赔率通常为25。在双2百搭牌游戏中，皇家百搭牌的赔率也很常见。
例如，假设一位9-6 J或Better的玩家将一张100美元的钞票投入一台25美分的机器。他在爆牌前赢得25个或更多投注单位的概率是多少？100美元可以在这台机器上购买100/1.25 = 80个全额投注。表格显示，在100美元用完之前，赢得四张或更多同花顺的概率为83.86%。
赢 25 或以上或爆牌
| 资金 | 9-6 DDB | 9-6 工作 | 首脑计划工作队 | 非小细胞肺癌 | 10-7 DB | 8-5 BP | FPA8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10.36% | 20.39% | 16.00% | 15.55% | 12.25% | 17.91% | 17.92% |
| 20 | 19.66% | 36.61% | 29.45% | 28.69% | 23.00% | 32.61% | 32.63% |
| 三十 | 27.99% | 49.53% | 40.74% | 39.77% | 32.44% | 44.69% | 44.70% |
| 40 | 35.46% | 59.82% | 50.22% | 49.14% | 40.72% | 54.59% | 54.60% |
| 50 | 42.15% | 68.01% | 58.18% | 57.06% | 47.99% | 62.73% | 62.73% |
| 60 | 48.15% | 74.53% | 64.87% | 63.73% | 54.36% | 69.41% | 69.41% |
| 70 | 53.53% | 79.72% | 70.50% | 69.37% | 59.96% | 74.88% | 74.89% |
| 80 | 58.34% | 83.86% | 75.22% | 74.14% | 64.87% | 79.38% | 79.39% |
| 90 | 62.67% | 87.15% | 79.18% | 78.16% | 69.18% | 83.07% | 83.08% |
| 100 | 66.54% | 89.77% | 82.51% | 81.55% | 72.95% | 86.11% | 86.11% |
| 110 | 70.01% | 91.85% | 85.31% | 84.42% | 76.26% | 88.59% | 88.60% |
| 120 | 73.12% | 93.51% | 87.66% | 86.84% | 79.18% | 90.64% | 90.64% |
| 130 | 75.90% | 94.83% | 89.63% | 88.89% | 81.73% | 92.31% | 92.32% |
| 140 | 78.40% | 95.89% | 91.29% | 90.62% | 83.97% | 93.69% | 93.69% |
| 150 | 80.64% | 96.73% | 92.69% | 92.08% | 85.93% | 94.82% | 94.82% |
| 160 | 82.65% | 97.39% | 93.86% | 93.31% | 87.65% | 95.74% | 95.75% |
| 170 | 84.45% | 97.93% | 94.84% | 94.35% | 89.17% | 96.51% | 96.51% |
| 180 | 86.06% | 98.35% | 95.66% | 95.23% | 90.50% | 97.13% | 97.14% |
| 190 | 87.50% | 98.69% | 96.36% | 95.97% | 91.66% | 97.65% | 97.65% |
| 200 | 88.80% | 98.95% | 96.94% | 96.59% | 92.68% | 98.07% | 98.07% |
| 250 | 93.52% | 99.67% | 98.72% | 98.54% | 96.19% | 99.28% | 99.28% |
| 300 | 96.25% | 99.89% | 99.47% | 99.37% | 98.02% | 99.73% | 99.73% |
| 350 | 97.83% | 99.97% | 99.78% | 99.73% | 98.97% | 99.90% | 99.90% |
| 400 | 98.74% | 99.99% | 99.91% | 99.88% | 99.46% | 99.96% | 99.96% |
| 450 | 99.27% | 100.00% | 99.96% | 99.95% | 99.72% | 99.99% | 99.99% |
| 500 | 99.58% | 100.00% | 99.98% | 99.98% | 99.86% | 99.99% | 99.99% |
以下是每场比赛赢得 25 或更多胜利所需的平均资金。
- 9-6 双倍奖金：91.86
- 9-6 J或更好：44.37
- 全额支付 Deuces Wild：57.85
- 不那么丑的鸭子 Deuces Wild：59.66
- 10-7 双倍奖励：76.99
- 8-5 红利扑克：51.17
- 8-5 A和8：51.16
方法论
本页面使用随机模拟。与往常一样，假设玩家采取最佳策略。
外部链接
关于这个话题的讨论可以在我在 Wizard of Vegas 论坛的“赢得皇家奖金要求”主题下找到。