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美国职业棒球大联盟博彩中的冷门话题

美国职业棒球大联盟博彩中的冷门话题

介绍

本页面是我“美国职业棒球大联盟投注”主页的附录。我创建该页面时,它基于2000年至2009年赛季的数据。2018年9月,我根据2016年和2017年赛季的数据对其进行了更新。然而,有些表格不太常用,我懒得更新。我花了太多时间研究它们,不想把它们扔掉,所以就把内容复制粘贴到这个页面上了。

数据来源

本次分析的数据来自美国职业棒球大联盟(MLB)2000年至2009赛季的比赛。由于数据不完整或损坏,我不得不删除一些比赛。

跑垒线投注

遗憾的是,我的数据没有显示跑垒线投注。不过,我可以提供以下表格,帮助根据公平赔率(FML)和总分确定公平跑垒线。我使用逻辑回归创建了这些表格,这并非易事。

第一个表格是客场弱队+1.5分的赔率。如果要得到主场强队-1.5分的公平赔率,则乘以-1,得出相反的赔率。

客队弱队公平得分线 +1.5

联邦管理法全部的
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12
100 -212 -207 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -173
105 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -179 -176 -172 -169 -165
110 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -172 -169 -165 -162 -159
115 -188 -184 -180 -176 -173 -169 -166 -163 -159 -156 -153
120 -181 -177 -174 -170 -167 -163 -160 -157 -154 -150 -147
125 -175 -171 -168 -164 -161 -158 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142
130 -169 -165 -162 -159 -156 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -138
135 -164 -160 -157 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133
140 -159 -155 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -137 -135 -132 -129
145 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125
150 -150 -147 -144 -141 -138 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122
155 -146 -143 -140 -137 -134 -131 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119
160 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 -123 -120 -118 -116
165 -138 -136 -133 -130 -127 -125 -122 -120 -117 -115 -113
170 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -115 -112 -110
175 -132 -129 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -114 -112 -110 -108
180 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105
185 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103
190 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101
195 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101
200 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 103
210 -114 -112 -110 -108 -105 -103 -101 101 103 105 107
220 -110 -108 -106 -104 -102 100 102 104 107 109 111
230 -107 -105 -103 -101 102 104 106 108 110 112 115
240 -104 -102 101 103 105 107 109 111 114 116 118
250 -101 101 103 106 108 110 112 115 117 119 122
260 102 104 106 109 111 113 115 118 120 123 125
270 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 121 123 126 129
280 107 110 112 114 117 119 121 124 127 129 132
290 110 112 115 117 119 122 124 127 130 132 135
300 112 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138
310 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 133 135 138 141
320 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 141 144
330 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 147
340 122 124 127 129 132 135 138 140 143 146 149
350 124 126 129 132 134 137 140 143 146 149 152
360 126 128 131 134 137 139 142 145 148 151 154
370 128 131 133 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 157
380 130 133 135 138 141 144 147 150 153 156 159
390 132 135 137 140 143 146 149 152 155 159 162
400 134 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 158 161 164

让我们看一个例子来了解如何使用该表格。2010年4月6日,拉斯维加斯希尔顿酒店在洋基队对阵红袜队的比赛中提供了以下投注。与往常一样,主队列在最后。

洋基队对阵红袜队

团队输赢盘全部的跑线
洋基队125 9.5 -170
红袜队-135 150

洋基队的公平盘口是+130,可以通过将两队之间的分红分成两半来计算。接下来,在表格中查找+130和9.5的数值,也就是-152。因此,公平盘口投注如下:

洋基队 +1.5 -152
红袜队 -1.5 +152

实际跑垒线分别为-170和+150。假设我的分析正确,洋基队跑垒线的庄家优势为4.20%,红袜队为0.79%。

顺便说一下,这场比赛的实际比分是洋基队 6 比红袜队 4

下表显示了主场弱队的公平得分线。它与上表客场弱队表之间差异显著的原因是,客队额外获得1.5分更有价值。这是因为主队在第九局或之后的任何制胜一击都将结束比赛。因此,主队以一分优势获胜的比赛很多。

主队弱队的公平得分线 +1.5

联邦管理法全部的
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12
100 -171 -169 -168 -166 -165 -163 -162 -160 -159 -157 -156
105 -164 -162 -161 -159 -158 -156 -155 -153 -152 -150 -149
110 -157 -156 -154 -153 -151 -150 -148 -147 -146 -144 -143
115 -151 -150 -148 -147 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137
120 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 -136 -135 -134 -132
125 -140 -139 -138 -136 -135 -134 -133 -131 -130 -129 -128
130 -136 -134 -133 -132 -130 -129 -128 -127 -126 -124 -123
135 -131 -130 -129 -127 -126 -125 -124 -123 -122 -120 -119
140 -127 -126 -125 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -117 -116
145 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112
150 -120 -119 -117 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109
155 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106
160 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103
165 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100
170 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102
175 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 101 102 103 104 105
180 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107
185 -100 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109
190 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112
195 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114
200 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 117
210 110 111</td> 112 113 114 115 117 118 119 120 121
220 114 115 116 117 119 120 121 122 123 124 126
230 118 119 120 121 123 124 125 126 127 129 130
240 122 123 124 125 127 128 129 130 132 133 134
250 126 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138
260 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 139 141 142
270 133 134 135 137 138 139 141 142 143 145 146
280 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 145 147 148 150
290 139 141 142 143 145 146 148 149 150 152 153
300 143 144 145 147 148 150 151 152 154 155 157
310 146 147 149 150 151 153 154 156 157 159 160
320 149 150 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164
330 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167
340 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 169 170
350 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 168 170 172 173
360 160 162 163 165 167 168 170 171 173 175 176
370 163 165 166 168 169 171 173 174 176 178 179
380 166 167 169 170 172 174 175 177 179 180 182
390 168 170 171 173 175 176 178 180 181 183 185
400 171 172 174 175 177 179 181 182 184 186 188

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备选总数

在棒球比赛中,当你想投注高于或低于时,通常会有两个不同的总分。例如,7.5 和 8。当然,如果你想让半分对你有利,你就必须支付更高的赔率。赔率取决于你买入或卖出的是奇数还是偶数,因为在棒球比赛中,奇数总分比偶数更常见。在零分年代(拜托谁能想出个术语来形容它),59.2% 的美国职业棒球大联盟比赛以奇数总分结束。希望我不需要解释原因。下表显示了在高于或低于投注中额外购买半分的合理等值赔率。

要使用表格,如果投注小数,请查找两条线中较低的一条;如果投注大数,请查找较高的一条。使用第二列还是第三列取决于您投注的是大数还是小数,以及底线是奇数、偶数、奇数 +0.5 还是偶数 +0.5。具体来说,如果您对小数感兴趣,请使用第二列中奇数或偶数 +0.5 的底线,否则使用第三列。如果您对大数感兴趣,请使用第二列中奇数或奇数 +0.5 的底线,否则使用第三列。

购买半分的替代总数

市场线脱离困境
奇数、偶数 +0.5偶数、奇数 +0.5
结束
奇数或奇数+0.5双数或双数 +0.5
-140 -177 -165
-135 -170 -159
-130 -164 -153
-125 -157 -147
-120 -151 -141
-115 -144 -135
-110 -138 -129
-105 -131 -123
100 -125 -117
105 -119 -111
110 -114 -106
115 -109 -102
120 -104 103
125 -100 107
130 104 111
135 108 115
140 112 119

让我们看一个如何使用该表格的例子。在我撰写本文时,今天(2010年8月20日)在太空人队对阵马林鱼队的比赛中,希尔顿酒店低于7.5的赔率为-105,而米高梅酒店低于8的赔率为-135。哪个赔率更好?7.5是一个“单数+0.5”的赔率。-105这一行和“双数、单数+0.5”这一列的交点为-123。这意味着你对低于7.5的赔率-105和低于8的赔率-123的投注结果应该没有差异。米高梅酒店的实际赔率是-135,因此在这个例子中,希尔顿酒店低于7.5的赔率-105是更好的选择。

下表显示了如果您想从高于投注中减去半分,合理的赔率。例如,在同一场太空人队对阵马林鱼队的比赛中,您可以在希尔顿酒店以-115的赔率投注高于7.5分,或者在米高梅酒店以+115的赔率投注高于8分。哪个投注更划算?我们应该以8分作为基准,因为7.5分的赔率比高于半分。因此,查看+115这一行和“双数或双数+0.5”这一列,我们发现合理的赔率是-102。希尔顿酒店高于7.5分的赔率是-115,比-102更差,因此米高梅酒店高于8分+115的赔率是更好的选择。

我们再来看几个例子。以下是勇士队对阵小熊队的比赛台词。

希尔顿:大于10-115,小于10-105
米高梅:EV 超过 10.5,低于 10.5 -120

如果我们假设低于10-105的EV是公平的,那么相应的投注金额是低于10.5-123。因此,在米高梅酒店投注低于10.5-120的EV更佳。如果我们假设高于10.5的EV是公平的,那么相应的投注金额是高于10-117的EV。因此,在希尔顿酒店投注高于10-115的EV更佳。

接下来,这是蓝鸟队与红袜队比赛的台词。

车站:8.5以上-105,8.5以下-115
希尔顿:大于8 -125,小于8 +105

如果我们假设低于8 +105的赔率是公平的,那么相应的投注是低于8.5 -111的赔率。车站酒店的低于8.5 -115的赔率不太好,所以低于8 +105的赔率是更好的选择。如果我们假设高于8.5 -105的赔率是公平的,那么相应的投注是高于8 -123的赔率。希尔顿酒店的高于8 -125的赔率不太好,所以高于8 -105的赔率是更好的选择。

总跑垒、安打和失误

有时在季后赛,赌场会提供总得分、安打和失误的投注大小盘。我注意到,预测总得分、安打和失误与实际总得分、安打和失误之间存在相当线性的关系。估计总得分、安打和失误的最小二乘回归线为 12.45 + 1.817 × t,其中 t 代表估计总得分。

下表根据预计的总运行次数显示了估计和实际的总运行次数、命中次数和错误次数。

MLB 总得分、安打和失误数

全部的样本量估计的实际的
6 1 23.35 14.00
6.5 71 24.26 24.46
7 610 25.17 24.81
7.5 1635 26.08 26.36
8 2393 26.98 26.74
8.5 4122 27.89 27.80
9 5337 28.80 28.88
9.5 4472 29.71 29.92
10 2395 30.62 30.53
10.5 1736 31.53 31.42
11 747 32.43 32.22
11.5 285 33.34 33.75
12 131 34.25 33.80
12.5 102 35.16 33.61
十三77 36.07 35.97
13.5 55 36.98 36.73
14四十七37.89 35.96
14.5三十五38.79 40.29
15 15 39.70 45.33

第一局得分

棒球比赛中一个很受欢迎的投注项目是第一局是否会得分。很明显,第一局得分的概率与预测总分高度相关。下表显示了根据总分计算的第一局得分的比赛场次。第二列名为 RSFI,代表“第一局得分”。该表格基于 2001 年至 2011 年赛季的数据。右下角单元格显示第一局至少得分一次的总体概率为 52.5%。

第一局得分数据

全部的皇家国际融资租赁公司总比赛场次比率
5 0 1 0.00%
5.5十三17 76.47%
6三十68 44.12%
6.5 134 335 40.00%
7 537 1127 47.65%
7.5 1093 2313 47.25%
8 1544 3109 49.66%
8.5 2603 5039 51.66%
9 3054 5859 52.12%
9.5 2415 4403 54.85%
10 1199 2163 55.43%
10.5 811 1358 59.72%
11 313 516 60.66%
11.5 128 206 62.14%
12 72 112 64.29%
12.5 64 103 62.14%
十三四十七68 69.12%
13.5二十六41 63.41%
14 10 16 62.50%
14.5 8 12 66.67%
15 1 1 100.00%
全部的14102 26867 52.49%

图表如下。蓝线显示的是第一局实际得分的比赛占预计总得分的百分比,范围从 6.5 到 11.5。红线被称为“最小二乘”回归线,它通过显示比赛总得分与第一局得分概率最匹配的直线来平滑波动。该直线的方程式为p=0.2554 + 0.0304×t ,其中 p = 第一局得分概率,t = 预计总得分。

我还考虑了如果比赛有大热门,这是否重要。在总分相同的情况下,我发现比赛的输赢盘并不影响第一局的得分概率。

在棒球比赛中,赔率通常会根据投注金额是低于还是高于预计总得分而有所不同。例如,在2012年4月13日酿酒人队和勇士队的比赛中,总得分为7.5。在Bovada,高于的赔率是-125,低于的赔率是+105。考虑到高总得分的压力,这意味着第一局得分的概率会增加。我建议,当高于和低于预期的赔率不相等时,使用以下修改后的公式来调整。

p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×t + 0.000724×f ,其中

p = 第一局得分概率
t = 预计比赛总分
f = 总体偏爱分数

让我来解释一下“大盘热门分”。这指的是大盘赔率盘口朝热门一方倾斜了多少分。例如,如果体育博彩公司对总分的赔率是20美分,这意味着小盘和大盘的分差是20分,那么下表显示的就是“大盘热门分”的数量。

大分热门分数

输赢盘
在结束
偏爱
积分
130 -40
125 -35
120 -30
115 -25
110 -20
105 -15
100 -10
-105 -5
-110 0
-115 5
-120 10
-125 15
-130 20
-135二十五
-140三十
-145三十五
-150 40

让我们看几个基于 20 美分总额的例子。

例1 :大都会队对阵费城人队,赔率超过6.5 -115。上表显示5个热门点。因此,第一局得分的概率为:

p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×6.5 + 0.000724×5 = 0.45662。这相当于第一局+119的公平赔率。

示例 2 :金莺队对阵洋基队,赔率 7.5 -105。上表显示 -5 的热门分数。因此,第一局得分的概率为:

p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×7.5 + 0.000724×-5 = 0.47978。这相当于第一局+108的公平赔率。

如果您使用的体育博彩的总赔率不是 20 美分,则请相应地调整偏爱点数。

看看这个特别投注的实际赔率,你会发现大多数体育博彩公司都设定得足够好,无论哪种情况都不会占到便宜。然而,我发现有一本博彩公司似乎更倾向于这个特别投注的“不”,这通常使得投注首局得分很有价值。最好尽早尝试在这类投注上投注,这样可以击败其他精明的博彩玩家。