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NFL 中的过关投注

介绍

在赌博术语中,“过关投注”(Parlay)指的是至少投注两场赛事,每次赢钱后再累积奖金。通常情况下,你会输,但当你赢钱时,你就能赢一大笔钱,这在一定程度上取决于你投注了多少场赛事。

在体育博彩中,即使比赛同时进行,投注者也可以通过过关投注赢取奖金。这可以通过“场外投注”或过关卡进行。本页面介绍了这两种方法,并包含三种常见的过关卡。我希望通过本页面传达的信息是,在过关卡上随机选择投注方式是错误的体育博彩方式,会导致较高的赌场优势。然而,精明的投注者可以利用NFL常见胜率的盘口变动,在半分过关卡上获得30%或更高的强劲优势。

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我要声明一下,对本页的任何获胜概率和预期回报都持保留态度。我不得不假设过关卡上的点差是如何被故意调整为整数或非整数的,具体取决于过关卡。我的数据也没有反映出这样一个事实:从过关卡印制到比赛开始,赔率线通常会发生变化。一方面,卡牌制作者可能会精心设置点差,以最大限度地降低玩家优势。另一方面,众所周知,收盘赔率比开盘赔率更准确,玩家可以利用这些赔率线的变动,在最后一刻投入过关卡。综合考虑所有因素,我认为半分过关卡可以获得巨大的优势,但这些优势无法精确计算。它们可能更大,也可能更小。

读完这篇文章后,持怀疑态度的人可能会想,既然半分过关卡这么容易赢,为什么不是每个人都这么做呢?很多博彩玩家都这么想。体育博彩公司对这类游戏感到紧张,因为他们在某些热门比赛中往往会在同一方遭遇惨败。然而,我想对很多职业赌徒来说,它们并非一种可行的优势玩法,因为:

  1. 很难投入大量资金。通常,单张过关投注卡的最高投注额是200美元,而且如果所有选项都指向热门方向,即使是100美元的投注也可能引发危险信号。
  2. 它们的冒泡过程非常耗时。
  3. 要么盛宴,要么饥荒。一般来说,玩家投注的次数越多,优势就越大。例如,8次投注的半分过关投注,赔率最高可达200比1。当然,这种风险极低的投注通常都会输。

你必须自己决定过关卡是否适合你。不过,如果你真的下注了,希望你能从我的分析中有所收获。

方法论

本页所有胜率均基于1994年至2012赛季的4,950场比赛。除非另有说明,所有投注选项均指让分盘投注。除非盘口出现大幅波动,否则我不建议在过关卡上投注总分。

场外过关投注

“场外投注”过关投注基于投注时投注板上的当前让分。无需填写投注卡。相反,投注者需要告知投注者他希望过关投注的号码和投注金额。下表显示了根据投注选项数量和体育博彩组别,过关投注的赔付情况,假设每场比赛的赔率均为 -110(投注者必须承担 11 美元的风险才能赢得 10 美元)。本表中的赢利以“一比一”为基准。换句话说,如果投注获胜,则原始投注金将被退还。

过关投注 — 赔率表

体育博彩
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
博伊德2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160
康托尔2.6 6 10 20 40
金块2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140
凯撒2.6 6 10 20 40 75 140
左心室肥大症2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140
杰瑞的金块2.7 6.5十三二十六四十七92 180
米高梅2.6 6 10 20 40 80 150
车站2.6 6 11 22 40 80 150
平流层2.6 6 11 22 40 80 160
金银岛2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160
威廉希尔2.6 6 11 22 45 90 180 360 720
永利2.6 6 10 20 40
南点2.6 6 10 20 40 75 150

这张表显示,杰瑞金块赌场的场外过关投注赔率在所有赌场中是最慷慨的。除了方便之外,在拉斯维加斯的其他赌场,应该没有理由进行场外过关投注。

如果玩家在过关投注中加入赔率不为-110的投注,则上述赔付表将不再适用。相反,当投注者输入过关投注的投注项时,计算机将计算该投注的赔付金额。系统会将每笔投注视为独立投注,所有赢利都计入。例如,如果您在让分盘-110的比赛中进行过关投注,在输赢盘+250的比赛中进行过关投注,并且两场都赢了,那么您的赔付率将是(210/110)×(350/100) - 1 = 5.68 比 1。

除了三条腿的过关投注和慷慨的杰里金块赔率外,在过关投注中至少混合一条腿(而不是-110)会获得更好的价值。以下是三种方法:

  • 混合投注金钱线,最好是投注在弱势一方。
  • 混合一条不对称的线,通常偏离三个点。例如,单腿放置105或115。
  • 买单场半分。他们可能不会让你用三分买单,所以最好押注120,在7分的弱队上获得+7.5,或在7分的强队上获得-6.5。如果拿不定主意,就押注+7.5的弱队。

让我们通过一个例子来看一下它是如何工作的。

  • 杰西在一家赔率为40比1的体育博彩公司,进行了六连胜,让分均为-110。他的获胜概率为(1/2) 6 = 1.5625%。预期回报率为(1/2) 6 ×(40+1) = 64.06%。
  • 沃尔特还对同一支球队进行了六连胜。第五场他以-110的赔率保留。第六场他买入了7分弱队的半分,最终赔率为+7.5。他必须为这半分支付-120。这场比赛的赔率为(210/110) 5 ×(220/120) - 1 = 45.49 比 1。除了赢得更大的胜利之外,由于多了一个半分,他的获胜概率也提高了。具体来说,赢得七连胜的半分的概率为51.95%。因此,他的总获胜概率为(1/2) 5 × 0.5195 = 1.6234%。他的预期回报率为0.016234 × (45.49+1) = 77.10%。

因此,通过以 7 的折扣价买入半点,沃尔特的预期回报比杰西高出 13%。

如上所述,上述建议的一个例外是,三轮过关投注的标准赔付 6 比计算方法给出的 5.96 更慷慨。以下是我对场外过关投注的建议。

在 Jerry's Nugget :坚持参加 -110 赛事,但六队联注除外,在这种情况下,最好至少混合一个非 -110 的选择。
杰瑞金块赌场 (Jerry's Nugget) 除外:三队联注投注,请坚持投注赔率 -110 的赛事。否则,请加入任何赔率不为 -110 的赛事。

还有一条建议,也是体育博彩中最重要的一条建议,就是投注弱队!自1994年以来,51.6%的弱队在已结算的比赛中战胜了让分盘。如果您认为这种趋势已经结束,下表显示了弱队逐年在让分盘中的胜率。

弱势方胜率与让分盘

季节胜利损失胜率
1994 236 206 53.39%
1995 254 226 52.92%
1996 244 240 50.41%
1997 248 210 54.15%
1998 222 254 46.64%
1999 274 228 54.58%
2000 266 234 53.20%
2001 248 230 51.88%
2002 284 236 54.62%
2003 254 254 50.00%
2004 272 240 53.13%
2005 214 298 41.80%
2006 298 218 57.75%
2007 244 260 48.41%
2008 264 250 51.36%
2009 264 254 50.97%
2010 268 250 51.74%
2011 264 238 52.59%
2012 262 252 50.97%
平均的4880 4578 51.60%

强调这一点很重要,因此我也给你一个图表。

总而言之,我对“场外”投注的建议是:

  1. 押注弱势一方。
  2. 在 Jerry's Nugget 下注或至少选择一个赔率不为 -110 的选项。
  3. 如果您必须坚持参加 -110 赛事,并且不在 Jerry's Nugget,那么只投注三回合赛事。

半分过关卡

半分过关卡与其他过关卡的区别在于,每个让分或总分总是以一半结束。因此,永远不会出现平局。大多数地方称之为“半分过关卡”,但有些地方则直接称之为“过关卡”。随机投注者预计有50%的投注正确率。

然而,相比整数的“场外”数字,精明的投注者可以额外获得半分。例如,假设圣徒队在场外比猎鹰队领先五分。半分卡很可能会将让分调整到4.5或5.5。如果圣徒队让分到4.5,那么押圣徒队-4.5。如果圣徒队让分到5.5,那么押猎鹰队+5.5。更好的选择是,获得关键数字3和7的额外半分,因为25.35%的NFL比赛最终胜负分差是这两个关键数字之一。

下表显示了拉斯维加斯各家体育博彩公司提供的半点过关卡的赔付情况。本表中的赢利以“一注”计算。换句话说,即使投注赢了,原始投注也不会退还。如果一定要选出最佳方案,我会说是威廉希尔,除了10和12之外,他们的赔付在所有选项中都是最高的,或者并列最高。在这些情况下,米高梅的Premium Payout卡是最好的。

半分过关卡 — 赔率表

体育博彩
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
阿利安特6.5 12二十五50 100 180 375 800 1300 2500
博伊德6.5 12二十五46 90 170 375 800
凯撒6 12 22 40 85 170 340 700 6/60/1400
金块6.5 12二十五50 100 180 400 800
杰瑞的金块6.5 12二十五40 80 160 375 750
左心室肥大症6.5 12 22四十二80 156 400 800 1500
米高梅6 11 22四十二85 170 340 700 1400
米高梅PP 45 88 190 375 850 1600 3000/50
南点6.5 12二十五50 100 175 375 800
车站6.5 12 22.5 40 80 160 350 800
平流层6.5 12二十五45 85 170 375 800
金银岛6.5 12.5二十五45 85 160 350 800
威廉希尔(南内华达州) 6.5十三二十五50 100 190 400 825 1500 3000
威廉希尔(北内华达) 6.75十三二十六52 104 208 425 850 1500 3000
最大限度6.75十三二十六52 104 208 425 850 1600 3000

笔记:

  1. 凯撒超级联注特别赛中,捕获 12 个可赔付 1,400 美元,捕获 11 个可赔付 60 美元,捕获 10 个可赔付 6 美元。
  2. MGM pick-12 Premium Payout 联赢卡为抓到 12 的玩家支付 3,000 美元,为抓到 11 的玩家支付 50 美元的“坏牌”奖金。更多详情请见下文

随机选择器

下表显示了随机投注者的中奖概率和预期回报,基于威廉希尔(南内华达)的赔率。每次投注的中奖概率恰好是50.0%。该表显示赌场优势非常高。如果必须随机投注,最低赌场优势在10选10中均为16.92%。

半分过关卡 — 随机选择

支付概率获胜预期值
3 6.5 0.125000 -0.187500
4十三0.062500 -0.187500
5二十五0.031250 -0.218750
6 50 0.015625 -0.218750
7 100 0.007813 -0.218750
8 200 0.003906 -0.218750
9 400 0.001953 -0.218750
10 850 0.000977 -0.169922
11 1,600 0.000488 -0.218750
12 3,000 0.000244 -0.267578

获得半分


我下注两次的这个过关投注输了
仅针对包装工队,他们以 2 比 0 获胜。

下表显示了随机选择所有整数让分盘口的比赛,以获得额外半分的获胜概率和预期回报。每次选择的获胜概率恰好为52.76%。赔付基于南内华达州威廉希尔的赔率。表格显示,从选择4开始,玩家优势最大,在选择12时优势最大,为38.35%。凯利投注的最佳投注是选择6,其优势与方差之比为0.001403。

半分过关卡 — 半分选择器

支付概率获胜预期值
3 6.5 0.146839 -0.045548
4十三0.077468 0.007081
5二十五0.040870 0.021743
6 50 0.021562 0.078082
7 100 0.011375 0.137528
8 190 0.006001 0.140239
9 400 0.003166 0.266435
10 825 0.001670 0.378025
11 1,500 0.000881 0.321827
12 3,000 0.000465 0.394713

从 3 和 7 中获得半分。

下表显示了随机选择所有让分盘口为3和7的比赛,以获得额外半分的获胜概率和预期回报。每次选择的获胜概率恰好为54.42%。同样,赔付基于南内华达州威廉希尔的赔率。该表显示,每个选择都存在球员优势,其中选择12的球员优势最高可达103%。然而,25.03%的NFL比赛让分盘口为3或7。基于一周16场比赛的计算,预计只有四场比赛符合该标准。最佳凯利投注恰好是选择4的球员,其优势与方差之比为0.010380。

半分过关卡 — 3 和 7 Picker 的半分

支付概率获胜预期值
3 6.5 0.161187 0.047718
4十三0.087722 0.140384
5二十五0.047740 0.193507
6 50 0.025981 0.299068
7 100 0.014140 0.413966
8 190 0.007695 0.462074
9 400 0.004188 0.675146
10 825 0.002279 0.880285
11 1,500 0.001240 0.860536
12 3,000 0.000675 1.025093

内华达州南部与北部

内华达州北部不仅水源充足(至少在我们修建输水管道之前),而且威廉希尔的半点过关卡也更加慷慨。为了举例说明这些额外福利的贡献有多大,下表显示了内华达州南部和北部过关卡的预期价值,基于假设每条过关卡的正确概率为54%,我认为这是一个合理的估计。

威廉希尔过关投注赔率——南内华达州 vs. 北内华达州

南方
内华达州
支付
北方
内华达州
支付
概率获胜南方
内华达州
预期值
北方
内华达州
预期值
3 6.5 6.75 15.75% 2.35% 6.29%
4十三十三8.50% 10.54% 10.54%
5二十五二十六4.59% 14.79% 19.38%
6 50 52 2.48% 23.97% 28.93%
7 100 104 1.34% 33.89% 39.25%
8 190 208 0.72% 37.37% 50.39%
9 400 425 0.39% 56.17% 65.93%
10 825 850 0.21% 73.94% 79.21%
11 1500 1500 0.11% 70.77% 70.77%
12 3000 3000 0.06% 84.44% 84.44%

米高梅高级支付卡

下表分析了米高梅 (MGM) 的选12高级赔付过关卡。该投注的特点是,如果玩家从12个号码中选对11个,则支付50%的“坏牌”奖金。下表分析了随机选号者的投注情况。右下角单元格显示回报率为87.89%。

12 条腿高级赔付 — 随机选择

正确选择支付可能性返回
12 3,000 0.000244 0.732422
11 50 0.002930 0.146484
10 或更少0 0.996826 0.000000
全部的1.000000 0.878906

下表显示了“半点”选择者(即总是选择比市场线高半个点的线)选择12点期权的溢价回报。右下角单元格显示回报率高达164%!

高级赔付 Pick 12 — 半点选择器 Picker

正确选择支付可能性返回
12 3,000 0.000465 1.394713
11 50 0.004996 0.249788
10 或更少0 0.994539 0.000000
全部的1.000000 1.644501

凯撒超级过关特别赛

下表分析了凯撒的12选1超级过关特别投注。该投注的特点是,选中全部12个号码的赔率为1400,选中11个号码的赔率为60,选中10个号码的赔率为60。下表分析了随机投注者的投注情况。右下角单元格显示回报率为61.43%。与米高梅高级赔付卡95%的回报率相比,在相同假设条件下,该赔率并不那么高。

超级过关特别活动 — 随机选择

正确选择支付可能性返回
12 1,400 0.000244 0.341797
11 60 0.002930 0.175781
10 6 0.016113 0.096680
9 或更少0 0.980713 0.000000
全部的1.000000 0.614258

下表显示了超级过关投注(Super Parlay Special)的回报率,投注者总是获得半点的收益。右下角的单元格显示回报率为109.02%。与米高梅高级彩金卡176%的回报率相比,在相同假设条件下,赔率并不那么高。

超级过关特别活动 — 半分选择器

正确选择支付可能性返回
12 1,400 0.000461 0.645619
11 60 0.004963 0.297754
10 6 0.024476 0.146858
9 或更少0 0.970100 0.000000
全部的1.000000 1.090231

平局赢过关卡

通常情况下,在过关投注卡上,如果出现平局,则“减少赔率”,就好像投注者从一开始就没有选择过这场比赛一样。例如,如果一张“选5”投注卡的结果为四胜一平,那么投注者将根据“选4”投注卡获得赔付。然而,顾名思义,在“平局赢”投注卡上,平局也算赢。更棒的是,大多数让分盘都是整数,这使得平局出现的可能性更大。

您通常看不到的唯一点差是 3 和 -3,因为 NFL 中 15.7% 的比赛以 3 分的胜差结束。将这些平局给予球员来说太有利了,所以他们将这些点差移至 2.5 或 3.5。

我对平局赢联赢卡的建议如下:

  1. 根据“关键数字”选择点差。换句话说,就是经常出现的胜率差距。下表列出了前十名。
  2. 选择市场“场外”线和卡片上的线之间至少有半分差异的游戏。

胜利的差距

胜利的差距频率
1 3 15.7%
2 7 9.3%
3 10 6.2%
4 6 5.4%
5 4 5.0%
6 14 4.8%
7 1 4.0%
8 17 3.6%
9 2 3.5%
10 5 3.2%

例如,假设闪电队在积分榜上落后9.5分,但在积分榜上却获得10分。这相当于在闪电队身上获得10.5分,或者根据平局获胜规则,获得一个完整的附加分。

下表显示了拉斯维加斯各体育博彩集团的过关卡赔付情况。本表中的赔付以“一赔一”计算。换句话说,即使投注获胜,原始投注也不会退还。很难选择最佳投注组,因为它取决于所选投注的数量,如下所示:

  • 选择 3:很多支付 6。
  • 选择 4:金银岛, 11 点。
  • 选择 5:20 件。
  • 选择 6: Golden NuggetSouth Point, 40。
  • 选择 7:75 的地段。
  • 选择 8:数量为 150。
  • 选择 9: LVH为 305。
  • 选择 10:Jerry's Nugget,价格为 625。

平局赢过关卡 — 赔率表

体育博彩
挑选3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
阿利安特6 10 20 40 75 150 305 600 1200 2000
博伊德6 10 20三十六75 150 275 600
金块6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600
杰瑞的金块6 10 20三十九70 150 302 625
左心室肥大症6 10 18 33 62 120 305 600 1150
南点6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600
车站6 10 20三十五65 130 250 600
平流层6 10 20三十六75 140 275 600
金银岛6 11 20三十八75 140 300 600

为了估算“平局胜”卡的价值,我必须对体育博彩公司如何设计卡上的赔率线做出假设。如上所述,他们喜欢通过设置除+/- 3之外的整数让分,给玩家平局的机会。如果让分在盘口外是+/- 3,我将其调整为+/- 2.5。否则,如果让分在盘口外已经是整数,我假设它在卡上保持不变。如果让分以1/2结尾,我将其调整为整数让分线,使其为0.5分。基于这些赔率线设定假设,我得出平局的总体概率为2.89%。否则,胜或负的概率均为48.56%。因此,随机抽签者可以预期获得51.44%的正确率。

下表显示了随机投注者根据每次投注次数的最佳赔付预期回报。如您所见,赌场优势在 20% 到 31% 之间,具体取决于投注次数。

平局赢过关卡 — 随机选择

挑选支付概率获胜预期值
3 6 0.136149 -0.183104
4 11 0.070041 -0.229546
5 20 0.036032 -0.279353
6 40 0.018537 -0.258535
7 75 0.009536 -0.284795
8 150 0.004906 -0.264133
9 305 0.002524 -0.230256
10 625 0.001298 -0.188544
11 1,150 0.000668 -0.231894
12 2,000 0.000344 -0.312786

值得注意的是,有时制卡商也不喜欢 +/- 7 的点差,这会将获胜概率降低到 51.44% 以下。

下表显示了投注者仅在牌面让分比牌面让分高半个点的情况下进行的投注的预期回报。此类投注者预期可赢得53.18%的投注。同样,此表假设了最高可赢金额。回报栏显示,赌场优势为14.9%,玩家优势为13.1%。

平局赢过关卡 — 额外半分选择器

挑选支付概率获胜预期值
3 6 0.150409 -0.097545
4 11 0.079989 -0.120117
5 20 0.042539 -0.149214
6 40 0.022623 -0.095084
7 75 0.012031 -0.097665
8 150 0.006398 -0.040255
9 305 0.003403 0.037821
10 625 0.001810 0.130994
11 1,150 0.000962 0.106716
12 2,000 0.000512 0.023591

平局输掉过关卡

平局输赢过关卡则完全不同。与其他过关卡和让分盘过关卡不同,平局输赢过关卡通常仅基于一两场比赛。在NFL常规赛期间,它们通常基于周日和周一晚间的比赛。除了选择对阵方和总分之外,玩家还可以选择多种投注选项。例如,超过或少于两次拦截就是一个可能出现平局的选择。如果您必须玩平局输赢过关卡,以下是我提供的建议:

  • 不要选择任何可能以平局结束的赛事。例如,超过/少于三个射门得分的赛事。
  • 不要选择任何可能结果超过两种的事件。例如,第一个得分是传球达阵、跑动达阵、射门得分或任何其他得分。
  • 寻找相关性。例如,一支球队的最终得分为奇数,而另一支球队的最终得分为偶数。55.9% 的比赛以奇数结束,这必然是一个奇数和一个偶数之和。

以下是一些基于2000年至2012赛季的数据,可能有用也可能没用。例外的是平均射门得分数,它基于2000年至2010赛季的数据,因为其他年份的数据不足。当然,你也应该考虑你投注的实际比赛动态。这张表格应该显示一些信息,比如投注超过/低于两次拦截或三次射门得分的风险,因为这些数字非常接近平均值,因此很有可能出现平局。

NFL平均值

事件平均的
第一节得分8.54
第二节得分13.16
第三节得分8.94
第四节得分12.05
拦截2.03
处罚12.46
失球2.97
失球1.43
弃踢9.65
射门得分2.98
首攻37.46
冲球达阵1.42
传球达阵2.82

与任何类型的过关投注或过关过关投注一样,务必货比三家,寻找最佳赔付。下表显示了各体育博彩公司对平局输牌的赔付情况。本表中的赢利以“一赔一”计算。换句话说,即使投注赢了,原始投注也不会退还。

平局输掉过关卡 — 赔率表

体育博彩
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
博伊德11 20 40 80 160 350 800
金块6 11 20 40 80 150 300 800
米高梅6 11 20 40 80 150 300 600/20
南点6 11 20 40 80 160 350 700
车站6 12 23 45 80 160 320 800

下表显示了每种投注方式的预期回报,假设赔率表最佳,且每次投注的胜率均为50%。右栏显示,庄家优势在21.9%到37.5%之间(哎哟!)。

平局输掉过关卡 — 随机选择

挑选支付概率获胜预期值
3 6 0.125000 -0.250000
4 12 0.062500 -0.250000
5 23 0.031250 -0.281250
6 45 0.015625 -0.296875
7 80 0.007813 -0.375000
8 160 0.003906 -0.375000
9 350 0.001953 -0.316406
10 800 0.000977 -0.218750

下表显示了米高梅“选10”平局输牌的可能结果,假设每场比赛获胜的概率均为50%。右下角单元格显示预期回报率为78%。

米高梅选择 10 平局输掉 — 50% 选择者

正确选择支付可能性返回
10 600 0.000977 0.585938
9 20 0.009766 0.195313
8个或更少0 0.989258 0.000000
全部的1.000000 0.781250

希望我已经说服你,平局输掉的过关卡赔率很低。不过也有例外。有时超级碗的过关卡赔率会比较低。不过,如何识别它们超出了本文的范围。

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