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大学橄榄球博彩

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大学橄榄球博彩

介绍

本页旨在解释大学橄榄球投注的各种方式。我提供了一些常用的统计数据和建议。

平均值

下表可能对体育书籍没有任何帮助，但我认为这是比较大学橄榄球和NFL 的一种有趣方式。

足球平均值

统计大学NFL
总得分52.80 42.15
大于/小于总数48.31 41.32
点差-5.40 -2.45
主场胜率5.68 2.66
首攻39.49 37.64
冲刺尝试77.15 55.21
冲刺码数313.12 229.52
传球尝试62.34 66.44
传球码数438.52 430.63
拦截2.06 2.02
开球回攻码数166.14 161.90
处罚12.81 12.43
罚球码数109.36 102.77
失球3.44 2.94
失球1.74 1.41
弃踢10.35 9.66
弃踢码数419.42 415.04
萨克斯4.13 4.54
麻袋场27.66 29.18
第一节得分11.95 8.33
第二节得分15.39 12.94
第三节得分12.07 8.92
第四节得分13.30 11.75

胜利的差距

下表显示了每次胜利的次数和频率。

胜利的差距

利润
胜利		游戏百分比
1 413 3.35%
2 327 2.65%
3 1187 9.63%
4 475 3.85%
5 324 2.63%
6 362 2.94%
7 901 7.31%
8 294 2.38%
9 152 1.23%
10 535 4.34%
11 289 2.34%
12 221 1.79%
十三225 1.82%
14 533 4.32%
15 139 1.13%
16 169 1.37%
17 488 3.96%
18 308 2.50%
19 179 1.45%
20 267 2.17%
21 452 3.67%
22 161 1.31%
23 174 1.41%
24 352 2.85%
二十五226 1.83%
二十六135 1.09%
二十七213 1.73%
二十八337 2.73%
二十九99 0.80%
三十130 1.05%
31 270 2.19%
三十二160 1.30%
33 73 0.59%
三十四167 1.35%
三十五219 1.78%
三十六63 0.51%
三十七93 0.75%
三十八173 1.40%
三十九91 0.74%
40三十七0.30%
41 94 0.76%
四十二128 1.04%
43二十八0.23%
四十四49 0.40%
45 96 0.78%
46 41 0.33%
四十七二十五0.20%
四十八63 0.51%
49 77 0.62%
50 20 0.16%
51 23 0.19%
52 46 0.37%
53三十0.24%
54 7 0.06%
55二十六0.21%
56三十五0.28%
57 6 0.05%
58 19 0.15%
59 21 0.17%
60 8 0.06%
61 1 0.01%
62 14 0.11%
63 23 0.19%
64岁以上三十八0.31%
全部的12331 100.00%

下表按顺序显示了前十名的胜利幅度。

十大胜负分差

秩利润
胜利		游戏百分比
1 3 1,187 9.63%
2 7 901 7.31%
3 10 535 4.34%
4 14 533 4.32%
5 17 488 3.96%
6 4 475 3.85%
7 21 452 3.67%
8 1 413 3.35%
9 6 362 2.94%
10 24 352 2.85%
全部的5,698 46.21%

点差

投注任何足球比赛的主要方式是让分盘。下表显示了胜、负、平局的概率，以及根据主队/客队、弱队/强队投注的所有组合得出的预期价值。该表假设投注者投注11胜10负，这几乎总是如此。

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精选见解
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精选见解 爱荷华州立大学的强大防守和亚利桑那州立大学的高分进攻为一场有趣的比赛奠定了基础。旋风队控制比赛时间的能力可能对抗太阳魔鬼队的快节奏比赛至关重要。关键在于爱荷华州立大学如何遏制亚利桑那的爆发性进攻。预计将是一场竞争激烈的比赛，可能由失误决定。鉴于防守一致性，投注线可能略微偏向爱荷华州立。
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精选见解 加州金熊队与弗吉尼亚骑士队之间的对决提供了一个有趣的博彩机会。加州强大的防守可能会在对抗弗吉尼亚不稳定的进攻中成为决定性因素。然而，弗吉尼亚的主场表现明显更好，经常覆盖差额。考虑总得分的高/低作为一个选项，因为两队得分的变化。监测伤病报告和天气情况可能提供额外的见解。如果加州的防守保持强劲，押注加州可能是明智的，但不能低估弗吉尼亚的主场优势。
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Sat Nov 1st 03pm UL Monroe Warhawks Old Dominion Monarchs
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精选见解 内布拉斯加大学的康玉克斯队面临着来自南加州大学特洛伊木马队的严峻挑战。南加大拥有强大的进攻单元，由顶级四分卫领衔。内布拉斯加的防守需要全力以赴以限制住他们。从历史来看，内布拉斯加在高压客场比赛中表现不佳，这给了南加大优势。赌徒可能会考虑南加大，因为他们的主场优势和进攻实力。要注意内布拉斯加能否利用失误来扭转局势。
Sat Nov 1st 08pm Troy Trojans Arkansas State Red Wolves
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精选见解 在即将到来的NCAAF比赛中，Troy Trojans被视为与Arkansas State Red Wolves的强劲竞争对手，他们在本赛季的表现优于对手。Troy的进攻线一直表现出色，而Arkansas State在防守方面表现挣扎。博彩建议表明应关注Troy的得分能力以及高比分游戏的潜力。投注时请考虑Troy近期的状态和Arkansas State的弱点。
Sat Nov 1st 10pm San Jose State Spartans Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
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精选见解 圣荷西州大斯巴达队在对阵夏威夷彩虹勇士队的比赛中是热门，因为他们拥有更强的进攻和最近的连胜。夏威夷的防守不稳定，这为圣荷西州立提供了优势。圣荷西的关键球员准备利用夏威夷薄弱的次要防守。预计这将是一场高得分比赛，圣荷西将覆盖差距。鉴于两队的进攻能力，可能会超过总得分。
Next Week
Tue Nov 4th 07pm Ohio Bobcats Miami (OH) RedHawks
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精选见解 俄亥俄大学波猫队将在关键比赛中迎战迈阿密（OH）红鹰队。俄亥俄强力进攻挑战迈阿密稳固防守。关注俄亥俄的传球进攻，而迈阿密则依靠战略性地面进攻。天气可能影响结果，有利于迈阿密的地面进攻风格。俄亥俄的伤病可能改变局势。期待一场激烈的角逐，双方都在争取更高的联赛排名。
Fri Nov 7th 09pm Memphis Tigers Tulane Green Wave
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精选见解 孟菲斯老虎队与杜兰绿色波浪队之间的比赛预计将非常有竞争力。孟菲斯的进攻可以从任何地方发起攻击，对杜兰的防守构成威胁。然而，杜兰的强大地面进攻和主场优势可能是决定因素。投注者应考虑杜兰在主场的轻微优势，但也要密切关注孟菲斯利用防守漏洞的能力。特殊团队可能起到关键作用。建议在下注前关注两队球员的伤病情况。
Sat Nov 8th 11am Alabama Crimson Tide LSU Tigers
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精选见解 阿拉巴马与LSU之间的对决预示着一场紧张的比赛。阿拉巴马凭借坚实的防守和活力四射的进攻略占优势。然而，LSU的爆发性表现与主场优势可能扭转形势。值得观注的关键球员包括阿拉巴马的四分卫和LSU的外接手。预计比赛会紧张激烈，并有高分可能。
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Sat Nov 8th 12pm Penn State Nittany Lions Indiana Hoosiers
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精选见解 在即将到来的 NCAAF 比赛中，宾州州立大学尼塔尼雄狮对阵印第安纳胡斯尔队被认为是热门球队。雄狮队的强大防守和主场优势为他们带来优势。印第安纳需要克服最近的困难才能竞争。预计宾州州立的进攻将利用对手的失误。投注趋势强调了宾州州立的稳固主场记录。注意印第安纳可能的意外战术。
Sat Nov 8th 12pm Iowa Hawkeyes Oregon Ducks
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 俄勒冈鸭队以其强大的进攻和快速的场上节奏而闻名，这使他们成为爱荷华鹰眼队的强大对手。另一方面，鹰眼队依靠强大的防守来抵御俄勒冈的进攻策略。关键在于爱荷华控制比赛节奏的能力和俄勒冈防守的韧性。预计会有一场动态比赛，战略性玩法将是关键。
Sat Nov 8th 12pm Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解
Sat Nov 8th 12pm Mississippi State Bulldogs Georgia Bulldogs
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 密西西比州立斗牛犬队将在比赛中迎战强大的对手佐治亚斗牛犬队，后者拥有全国最佳的防守之一。密西西比州立的进攻可能会很有爆发力，但缺乏稳定性。佐治亚的队伍平衡且有主场优势，使他们成为强大的热门。投注趋势显示，佐治亚在主场对差点的记录很强。谨慎的投注者可能会考虑点差或总分高低，因为佐治亚的防守实力可能会让比分低于预期。
Sat Nov 8th 12pm UCLA Bruins Nebraska Cornhuskers
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 内布拉斯加的强大防守阵容将面对UCLA的动态进攻。请关注UCLA由他们有才华的四分卫领导的传球战术，而内布拉斯加的地面进攻也值得注意。天气条件可能影响比赛，所以请关注预测。由于主场优势，内布拉斯加可能是投注热门，但UCLA创造大场面的能力不可忽视。分析近期表现和伤病情况，以做出明智的投注。
Sat Nov 8th 03pm Missouri Tigers Texas A&M Aggies
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 在密苏里老虎队与德克萨斯农工大学农民队的比赛中，德克萨斯农工大学凭借其稳健的防守占据优势，该防守在最近的比赛中表现出了稳定性。密苏里的进攻必须提高他们的失误率以增加他们的机会。四分卫将是关键球员，因为他们的表现将至关重要。可以考虑选择德克萨斯农工大学作为略微更好的投注选择。
Sat Nov 8th 03pm TCU Horned Frogs Iowa State Cyclones
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 TCU Horned Frogs将在一场激动人心的比赛中对阵Iowa State Cyclones。TCU强大的进攻可能会利用Iowa State防守不稳定的弱点。然而，Iowa State的主场优势可能会让比赛更加均衡。虽然近期状态略微有利于TCU，但预计比赛会很接近。投注建议：考虑TCU能够覆盖差价。
Sat Nov 8th 04pm Vanderbilt Commodores Auburn Tigers
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 奥本老虎队以强劲的防守阵容和稳定的主场表现被看好，他们将在对阵客场表现不佳的范德比尔特大学军指挥部队中占据优势。奥本的冲击进攻可能会利用范德比尔特的薄弱跑动防守。预计奥本将舒适地覆盖让分，但要留意可能影响结果的最后伤病更新。
Sat Nov 8th 07pm Notre Dame Fighting Irish Navy Midshipmen
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 在Notre Dame Fighting Irish与Navy Midshipmen的对决中，Notre Dame历来占据优势。Notre Dame拥有更有经验的阵容和强大的进攻线，使他们成为热门。然而，Navy的多选进攻可能会具有破坏性。预计Navy将采用地面重心战术，但Notre Dame的防守可能会限制其效果。投注洞察建议基于其历史表现和战略深度支持Notre Dame。
Sat Nov 8th 11pm Hawaii Rainbow Warriors San Diego State Aztecs
独赢盘
让分盘
总分盘
精选见解 夏威夷的动态传球游戏挑战圣地亚哥州大的强悍防守。尽管夏威夷在空中表现出色，他们的地面进攻却显得乏力。圣地亚哥州大依赖稳固的跑动进攻和纪律严明的防守。失误可能是决定性的，尤其是在夏威夷的高风险战略失败时。圣地亚哥州大的主场优势很突出，但比赛仍然有竞争力。

点差投注

赌注概率获胜概率损失概率平局预期的
价值
所有弱势群体0.496298 0.487591 0.016112 -0.036411
所有收藏0.487591 0.496298 0.016112 -0.053033
所有家0.498338 0.485605 0.016057 -0.032571
全部离开0.485605 0.498338 0.016057 -0.056878
主场弱势方0.505600 0.474971 0.019429 -0.015335
家乡最爱0.494567 0.491155 0.014278 -0.041549
客场劣势0.491155 0.494567 0.014278 -0.048062
客场热门0.474971 0.505600 0.019429 -0.073808

大小盘

下表显示了投注高于/低于线的可能结果和预期价值。

大小投注

赌注概率获胜概率损失概率平局预期的
价值
在下面0.503232 0.483320 0.013447 -0.025836
超过0.483320 0.503232 0.013447 -0.063850

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100 % 高达

500$

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50 % 高达

250$

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250$

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输赢盘

下表显示了我数据中弱势方在每个让分点上的比赛场次，以及弱势方获胜的次数。它还显示了我在消除所有波动后估算的获胜概率。右栏显示了基于估算获胜概率的公平线。

弱队获胜的概率（以点差计算）

传播胜利游戏实际的
可能性		估计的
可能性		公平的
输赢盘
0四十二84 50.0% 50.0% 100
0.5 0 0 0.0% 48.5% 106
1 125 268 46.6% 47.1% 112
1.5 130 246 52.8% 45.6% 119
2 124 264 47.0% 44.2% 126
2.5 224 482 46.5% 42.7% 134
3 318 700 45.4% 41.3% 142
3.5 182 507 35.9% 39.9% 151
4 134 326 41.1% 38.5% 160
4.5 97 279 34.8% 37.1% 169
5 89 227 39.2% 35.8% 179
5.5 102 285 35.8% 34.5% 190
6 109 330 33.0% 33.2% 202
6.5 130 418 31.1% 31.9% 214
7 172 551 31.2% 30.6% 227
7.5 100 365 27.4% 29.4% 240
8 60 227 26.4% 28.2% 255
8.5 59 202 29.2% 27.0% 270
9 55 199 27.6% 25.9% 286
9.5 57 242 23.6% 24.8% 304
10 121 401 30.2% 23.7% 322
10.5 56 250 22.4% 22.7% 341
11四十八196 24.5% 21.7% 362
11.5三十141 21.3% 20.7% 383
12三十六175 20.6% 19.7% 407
12.5三十八162 23.5% 18.8% 431
十三三十八222 17.1% 18.0% 457
13.5 59 245 24.1% 17.1% 484
14四十八331 14.5% 16.3% 514
14.5二十九184 15.8% 15.5% 544
15 19 139 13.7% 14.8% 577
15.5 20 110 18.2% 14.0% 612
16二十五134 18.7% 13.4% 649
16.5 16 162 9.9% 12.7% 688
17二十六246 10.6% 12.1% 729
17.5 18 144 12.5% 11.5% 773
18 7 110 6.4% 10.9% 820
18.5 7 82 8.5% 10.3% 869
19 11 109 10.1% 9.8% 921
19.5 9 87 10.3% 9.3% 977
20 11 152 7.2% 8.8% 1,036
20.5 12 113 10.6% 8.3% 1,098
21 6 153 3.9% 7.9% 1,164
21.5 4 104 3.8% 7.5% 1,234
22 7 107 6.5% 7.1% 1,308
22.5 5 68 7.4% 6.7% 1,387
23 7 93 7.5% 6.4% 1,470
23.5 5 98 5.1% 6.0% 1,559
24 4 126 3.2% 5.7% 1,653
24.5 4 85 4.7% 5.4% 1,752
二十五7 66 10.6% 5.1% 1,858
25.5 1四十八2.1% 4.8% 1,969
二十六2 68 2.9% 4.6% 2,088
26.5 6 61 9.8% 4.3% 2,214
二十七1 79 1.3% 4.1% 2,347
27.5 6 73 8.2% 3.9% 2,488
二十八6 108 5.6% 3.7% 2,638
28.5 5 57 8.8% 3.5% 2,796
二十九2 52 3.8% 3.3% 2,965
29.5 1 45 2.2% 3.1% 3,143
三十1 50 2.0% 2.9% 3,332
30.5 3四十七6.4% 2.8% 3,533
31 2 54 3.7% 2.6% 3,745

要计算热门球队获胜的概率，只需取弱队在同一场比赛中获胜概率与100%之间的差值即可。例如，一支7分的弱队预计获胜概率为30.6%。因此，一支7分的热门球队获胜概率为100%-30.6% = 69.4%。

需要注意的是，估算概率并未考虑关键数字。例如，2.5分和3.5分的弱势球队之间的获胜概率差异，很可能高于估算概率栏中建议的42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8%。

我还根据主场或客场弱势球队来观察这条曲线，但并未发现统计上存在足够大的差异，需要进行特殊处理。

下图说明了实际和估计的获胜概率。

购买额外积分

下表显示了根据公平让分盘口，在不计算平局的情况下，额外获得0.5到2.5分的获胜概率。例如，你认为某支球队的公平让分盘口为+3，但有人给你+3.5，那么你的获胜概率就是53.42%。

弱队获胜的概率（以点差计算）

传播0.5 分1.0 分1.5 分2.0 分2.5 分
-21 0.520918 0.536281 0.551179 0.558373 0.565335
-20.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.538615 0.545809 0.558769
-20 0.515827 0.523484 0.530910 0.544301 0.557260
-19.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.529368 0.542759 0.558504
-19 0.507889 0.522142 0.535964 0.552234 0.567979
-18.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.545731 0.562001 0.568052
-18 0.514684 0.532002 0.548795 0.555047 0.561098
-17.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.541612 0.547864 0.553831
-17 0.517841 0.524496 0.530949 0.537114 0.543082
-16.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.519874 0.526040 0.544503
-16 0.506856 0.513418 0.519782 0.538860 0.557322
-15.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.533015 0.552092 0.560656
-15 0.506761 0.527067 0.546758 0.555606 0.564170
-14.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.550359 0.559207 0.567110
-14 0.520920 0.530338 0.539471 0.547638 0.555541
-13.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.527551 0.535717 0.544988
-13 0.509703 0.518395 0.526824 0.536404 0.545675
-12.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.527535 0.537115 0.555027
-12 0.508955 0.519152 0.529040 0.547548 0.565460
-11.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.539805 0.558313 0.563415
-11 0.510505 0.530205 0.549309 0.554580 0.559682
-10.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.545437 0.550708 0.559247
-10 0.520296 0.525907 0.531348 0.540171 0.548710
-9.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.520499 0.529322 0.554459
-9 0.505781 0.515172 0.524279 0.550252 0.575390
-8.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.545876 0.571850 0.582682
-8 0.509675 0.537321 0.564131 0.575324 0.586157
-7.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.567682 0.578875 0.588874
-7 0.528483 0.540396 0.551950 0.562281 0.572279
-6.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.534852 0.545183 0.559015
-6 0.512274 0.523271 0.533934 0.548227 0.562059
-5.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.537078 0.551370 0.581534
-5 0.511329 0.526542 0.541294 0.572461 0.602625
-4.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.563056 0.594223 0.604564
-4 0.515673 0.548847 0.581017 0.591702 0.602043
-3.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.578381 0.589065 0.601917
-3 0.534178 0.545551 0.556579 0.569858 0.582709
-2.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.536796 0.550075 0.554541
-2 0.511717 0.525851 0.539557 0.544172 0.548638
-1.5 0.514561 0.528695 0.533459 0.538074 0.550925
-1 0.514561 0.519473 0.524237 0.537516 0.550367
0 0.505061 0.519194 0.532901 0.543586 0.553926
1 0.514561 0.525934 0.536963 0.568130 0.598294
1.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.555260 0.586428 0.600260
2 0.511717 0.544891 0.577062 0.591354 0.605186
2.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.582104 0.596396 0.606395
3 0.534178 0.549390 0.564143 0.574474 0.584472
3.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.541549 0.551880 0.562713
4 0.515673 0.526669 0.537333 0.548526 0.559359
4.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.533879 0.545072 0.570209
5 0.511329 0.523243 0.534796 0.560770 0.585907
5.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.550998 0.576972 0.585510
6 0.512274 0.539921 0.566731 0.575553 0.584092
6.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.565236 0.574058 0.579160
7 0.528483 0.537874 0.546980 0.552252 0.557354
7.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.524507 0.529779 0.547691
8 0.509675 0.515286 0.520728 0.539235 0.557147
8.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.530496 0.549004 0.558275
9 0.505781 0.525481 0.544584 0.554164 0.563435
9.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.549884 0.559463 0.567367
10 0.520296 0.530492 0.540380 0.548547 0.556450
10.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.529131 0.537297 0.545861
11 0.510505 0.519197 0.527626 0.536475 0.545038
11.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.526781 0.535629 0.554092
12 0.508955 0.518373 0.527507 0.546584 0.565046
12.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.538813 0.557890 0.563857
十三0.509703 0.530009 0.549700 0.555866 0.561833
13.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.547589 0.553755 0.559806
14 0.520920 0.527482 0.533846 0.540098 0.546149
14.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.519777 0.526029 0.541775
15 0.506761 0.513416 0.519869 0.536138 0.551884
15.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.530304 0.546573 0.559533
16 0.506856 0.524173 0.540967 0.554358 0.567317
16.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.548981 0.562372 0.569334
17 0.517841 0.532095 0.545917 0.553110 0.560072
17.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.536363 0.543557 0.557525
18 0.514684 0.522341 0.529767 0.544200 0.558168
18.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.530443 0.544877 0.563338
19 0.507889 0.523251 0.538149 0.557225 0.575686
19.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.550880 0.569956
20 0.515827 0.536132 0.555822
20.5 0.520918 0.541223
21 0.520918

上表的实际用途是购买额外的半点。如果您下注 120（而不是通常的 110），大多数赌场都会给您额外的半点。下表显示了五个最佳让分盘口的获胜概率和预期价值，这些让分盘口可以用来购买半点。假设让分盘口公平，下注 110 的赌场优势为 4.76%，那么仅从 3、7、10 和 14 的让分盘口购买额外的半点就值得了。

购买半点让分盘的价值

传播概率。
赢		预期的
价值
3 53.42% -2.07%
7 52.85% -3.11%
14 52.09% -4.50%
10 52.03% -4.61%
17 51.78% -5.06%

预告片

让分盘基本上是一种骗人的赌注。在恰当的情况下，加上丰厚的赔率，它们或许是个不错的选择。然而，对于随意选择让分盘的休闲博彩玩家来说，它们的价值就很低了。

对于那些不了解的人来说，让分盘就像过关投注一样，只不过在大学橄榄球比赛中，玩家每场比赛可以获得6到7.5个额外积分。这些额外积分的赢利远低于过关投注。

为了开始我的分析，下表显示了以 6 到 7.5 个额外分数赢得每场比赛的概率，并根据玩家是否在挑逗边、低于、高于或做“Wong”挑逗，我将立即解释。

每轮预选赛获胜概率

积分边在下面超过黄
6 65.39% 65.39% 63.31% 71.57%
6.5 66.49% 66.47% 64.34%
7 67.72% 67.58% 65.47%
7.5 68.87% 68.63% 66.67%

在进一步阐述之前，我先解释一下什么是“黄氏让分盘”（Wong Teaser）。据我所知，这个想法最早出现在斯坦福·黄（Stanford Wong）的著作《精明体育博彩》（Sharp Sports Betting）中。黄氏正确地指出，3和7是NFL中最常见的两个胜率差距。他建议对这两个关键数字进行让分盘。它只适用于+1.5到+2.5以及-7.5到-8.5的公平让分。例如，将+2的弱队让分盘口调至+8，允许球队以射门得分或达阵得分输掉比赛，但仍然可以覆盖让分盘。

虽然这可以通过让分盘中的任意点数来实现，但只有六点让分盘才值得，因为降低的赔付可以获得超过六点的点数。

话虽如此，下表显示了根据我所见过的不同选择和支付次数以及所预测的投注类型得出的六分盘口预期价值。

6分盘口预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过黄
2 5到6 -21.60% -21.62% -26.52% -6.08%
2 1 -14.48% -14.49% -19.84% 2.45%
3 1.4 -32.89% -32.91% -39.10% -12.00%
3 1.6 -27.30% -27.32% -34.03% -4.67%
3 1.7 -24.50% -24.52% -31.49% -1.01%
3 1.8 -21.71% -21.73% -28.95% 2.66%
4 2.5 -36.00% -36.03% -43.77% -8.15%
4 2.8 -30.52% -30.54% -38.95% -0.28%
4 3 -26.86% -26.89% -35.74% 4.97%
5 4 -40.22% -40.24% -49.15% -6.09%
5 4.5 -34.24% -34.27% -44.06% 3.30%
6 6 -45.27% -45.30% -54.93% -5.90%
6 6.5 -41.36% -41.39% -51.71% 0.82%
6 7 -37.45% -37.49% -48.49% 7.54%
7 9 -48.87% -48.91% -59.24% -3.78%
7 10 -43.76% -43.80% -55.16% 5.84%
8 10 -63.22% -63.25% -71.61% -24.25%
8 12 -56.54% -56.57% -66.45% -10.48%

如您所见，上表中有很多非常负的预期值。少数正的预期值只出现在黄牌让分盘中，而且只有在赔率最高的情况下才有，这种情况很难找到。在Coast/Boyd赌场，可以找到赔率最高、预期值最高的黄牌让分盘。

我还应该指出，我的数据中只有1780场比赛的点差在黄牌过关盘区间内。我给出的黄牌过关盘获胜概率为71.57%，这个数字应该算比较粗略，标准差为1.70%。其他研究让我相信，黄牌过关盘在任何一局比赛中获胜的概率更接近68.9%。

下表显示了6.5分让分盘的预期价值。如前所述，黄牌让分盘仅在买入6分时有效，因此6.5、7和7.5分的表格中省略了该列。

6.5分盘口的预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 10至13 -21.80% -21.83% -26.77%
2 5到6 -18.96% -19.00% -24.12%
2 10到11 -15.61% -15.65% -20.98%
3 1.2 -35.35% -35.39% -41.42%
3 1.5 -26.53% -26.58% -33.43%
3 1.6 -23.59% -23.64% -30.76%
4 2 -41.38% -41.43% -48.60%
4 2.5 -31.61% -31.67% -40.04%
4 3 -21.84% -21.91% -31.47%
5 3.5 -41.54% -41.61% -50.40%
5 4 -35.05% -35.12% -44.89%
5 4.5 -28.55% -28.63% -39.38%
6 5 -48.18% -48.25% -57.45%
6 5.5 -43.86% -43.93% -53.91%
6 6 -39.54% -39.62% -50.36%
6 7 -30.91% -31.00% -43.27%
7 8 -48.32% -48.40% -58.94%
7 9 -42.58% -42.67% -54.38%
8 9 -61.82% -61.89% -70.65%
8 10 -58.01% -58.08% -67.71%
8 12 -50.37% -50.46% -61.84%

下表显示了 7 分制大学橄榄球预告片的预期值。

7分盘口预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 5到7 -21.39% -21.70% -26.53%
2 10至13 -18.87% -19.19% -24.17%
2 5到6 -15.93% -16.27% -21.42%
3 1 -37.89% -38.27% -43.88%
3 1.2 -31.68% -32.09% -38.27%
3 1.4 -25.47% -25.92% -32.66%
3 1.5 -22.37% -22.83% -29.85%
4 1.8 -41.12% -41.59% -48.57%
4 2 -36.92% -37.42% -44.89%
4 2.5 -26.40% -26.99% -35.71%
5 3 -43.04% -43.61% -51.90%
5 3.5 -35.92% -36.56% -45.88%
6 4 -51.79% -52.36% -60.63%
6 5 -42.14% -42.84% -52.76%
6 6 -32.50% -33.31% -44.89%
7 6.5 -51.03% -51.71% -61.34%
7 7 -47.76% -48.49% -58.77%
7 8 -41.23% -42.05% -53.61%
8 9 -55.78% -56.49% -66.26%
8 12 -42.52% -43.43% -56.13%

下表显示了 7.5 分大学橄榄球预告片的预期值。

7.5分盘口的预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 5到7 -18.68% -19.26% -23.81%
2 2到3 -20.94% -21.50% -25.93%
3 1.2 -28.13% -28.89% -34.81%
3 1.5 -18.33% -19.19% -25.93%
4 1.8 -37.00% -37.89% -44.69%
4 2 -32.50% -33.45% -40.74%
5 3 -38.01% -39.10% -47.33%
5 3.5 -30.27% -31.49% -40.74%
6 4 -46.64% -47.76% -56.10%
6 5 -35.96% -37.31% -47.33%
7 7 -41.19% -42.63% -53.18%
8 10 -44.31% -45.87% -57.08%

总结一下大学橄榄球预告片的话题，除非你每场比赛都有 6 分预告片，并且能够获得自由的 Coast/Boyd 赌场赔率，否则请远离它们。

数据

本次分析使用的数据来自1996年至2013年的12,231场大学橄榄球比赛。我之所以从1996年开始分析，是因为当时引入了加时赛规则，以消除平局。当时的数据相当粗糙，所以我不得不剔除掉很多包含不合理信息的比赛，比如让分差为-100、大小分盘为负、每节得分总和低于全场总分，或者比赛以平局结束。我确信其中肯定有一些不准确的数据，但我相信绝大多数数据都还不错。

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撰写者: Michael Shackleford