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大学橄榄球博彩

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大学橄榄球博彩

介绍

本页旨在解释大学橄榄球投注的各种方式。我提供了一些常用的统计数据和建议。

平均值

下表可能对体育书籍没有任何帮助，但我认为这是比较大学橄榄球和NFL 的一种有趣方式。

足球平均值

统计大学NFL
总得分52.80 42.15
大于/小于总数48.31 41.32
点差-5.40 -2.45
主场胜率5.68 2.66
首攻39.49 37.64
冲刺尝试77.15 55.21
冲刺码数313.12 229.52
传球尝试62.34 66.44
传球码数438.52 430.63
拦截2.06 2.02
开球回攻码数166.14 161.90
处罚12.81 12.43
罚球码数109.36 102.77
失球3.44 2.94
失球1.74 1.41
弃踢10.35 9.66
弃踢码数419.42 415.04
萨克斯4.13 4.54
麻袋场27.66 29.18
第一节得分11.95 8.33
第二节得分15.39 12.94
第三节得分12.07 8.92
第四节得分13.30 11.75

胜利的差距

下表显示了每次胜利的次数和频率。

胜利的差距

利润
胜利		游戏百分比
1 413 3.35%
2 327 2.65%
3 1187 9.63%
4 475 3.85%
5 324 2.63%
6 362 2.94%
7 901 7.31%
8 294 2.38%
9 152 1.23%
10 535 4.34%
11 289 2.34%
12 221 1.79%
十三225 1.82%
14 533 4.32%
15 139 1.13%
16 169 1.37%
17 488 3.96%
18 308 2.50%
19 179 1.45%
20 267 2.17%
21 452 3.67%
22 161 1.31%
23 174 1.41%
24 352 2.85%
二十五226 1.83%
二十六135 1.09%
二十七213 1.73%
二十八337 2.73%
二十九99 0.80%
三十130 1.05%
31 270 2.19%
三十二160 1.30%
33 73 0.59%
三十四167 1.35%
三十五219 1.78%
三十六63 0.51%
三十七93 0.75%
三十八173 1.40%
三十九91 0.74%
40三十七0.30%
41 94 0.76%
四十二128 1.04%
43二十八0.23%
四十四49 0.40%
45 96 0.78%
46 41 0.33%
四十七二十五0.20%
四十八63 0.51%
49 77 0.62%
50 20 0.16%
51 23 0.19%
52 46 0.37%
53三十0.24%
54 7 0.06%
55二十六0.21%
56三十五0.28%
57 6 0.05%
58 19 0.15%
59 21 0.17%
60 8 0.06%
61 1 0.01%
62 14 0.11%
63 23 0.19%
64岁以上三十八0.31%
全部的12331 100.00%

下表按顺序显示了前十名的胜利幅度。

十大胜负分差

秩利润
胜利		游戏百分比
1 3 1,187 9.63%
2 7 901 7.31%
3 10 535 4.34%
4 14 533 4.32%
5 17 488 3.96%
6 4 475 3.85%
7 21 452 3.67%
8 1 413 3.35%
9 6 362 2.94%
10 24 352 2.85%
全部的5,698 46.21%

点差

投注任何足球比赛的主要方式是让分盘。下表显示了胜、负、平局的概率，以及根据主队/客队、弱队/强队投注的所有组合得出的预期价值。该表假设投注者投注11胜10负，这几乎总是如此。

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点差投注

赌注概率获胜概率损失概率平局预期的
价值
所有弱势群体0.496298 0.487591 0.016112 -0.036411
所有收藏0.487591 0.496298 0.016112 -0.053033
所有家0.498338 0.485605 0.016057 -0.032571
全部离开0.485605 0.498338 0.016057 -0.056878
主场弱势方0.505600 0.474971 0.019429 -0.015335
家乡最爱0.494567 0.491155 0.014278 -0.041549
客场劣势0.491155 0.494567 0.014278 -0.048062
客场热门0.474971 0.505600 0.019429 -0.073808

大小盘

下表显示了投注高于/低于线的可能结果和预期价值。

大小投注

赌注概率获胜概率损失概率平局预期的
价值
在下面0.503232 0.483320 0.013447 -0.025836
超过0.483320 0.503232 0.013447 -0.063850

输赢盘

下表显示了我数据中弱势方在每个让分点上的比赛场次，以及弱势方获胜的次数。它还显示了我在消除所有波动后估算的获胜概率。右栏显示了基于估算获胜概率的公平线。

弱队获胜的概率（以点差计算）

传播胜利游戏实际的
可能性		估计的
可能性		公平的
输赢盘
0四十二84 50.0% 50.0% 100
0.5 0 0 0.0% 48.5% 106
1 125 268 46.6% 47.1% 112
1.5 130 246 52.8% 45.6% 119
2 124 264 47.0% 44.2% 126
2.5 224 482 46.5% 42.7% 134
3 318 700 45.4% 41.3% 142
3.5 182 507 35.9% 39.9% 151
4 134 326 41.1% 38.5% 160
4.5 97 279 34.8% 37.1% 169
5 89 227 39.2% 35.8% 179
5.5 102 285 35.8% 34.5% 190
6 109 330 33.0% 33.2% 202
6.5 130 418 31.1% 31.9% 214
7 172 551 31.2% 30.6% 227
7.5 100 365 27.4% 29.4% 240
8 60 227 26.4% 28.2% 255
8.5 59 202 29.2% 27.0% 270
9 55 199 27.6% 25.9% 286
9.5 57 242 23.6% 24.8% 304
10 121 401 30.2% 23.7% 322
10.5 56 250 22.4% 22.7% 341
11四十八196 24.5% 21.7% 362
11.5三十141 21.3% 20.7% 383
12三十六175 20.6% 19.7% 407
12.5三十八162 23.5% 18.8% 431
十三三十八222 17.1% 18.0% 457
13.5 59 245 24.1% 17.1% 484
14四十八331 14.5% 16.3% 514
14.5二十九184 15.8% 15.5% 544
15 19 139 13.7% 14.8% 577
15.5 20 110 18.2% 14.0% 612
16二十五134 18.7% 13.4% 649
16.5 16 162 9.9% 12.7% 688
17二十六246 10.6% 12.1% 729
17.5 18 144 12.5% 11.5% 773
18 7 110 6.4% 10.9% 820
18.5 7 82 8.5% 10.3% 869
19 11 109 10.1% 9.8% 921
19.5 9 87 10.3% 9.3% 977
20 11 152 7.2% 8.8% 1,036
20.5 12 113 10.6% 8.3% 1,098
21 6 153 3.9% 7.9% 1,164
21.5 4 104 3.8% 7.5% 1,234
22 7 107 6.5% 7.1% 1,308
22.5 5 68 7.4% 6.7% 1,387
23 7 93 7.5% 6.4% 1,470
23.5 5 98 5.1% 6.0% 1,559
24 4 126 3.2% 5.7% 1,653
24.5 4 85 4.7% 5.4% 1,752
二十五7 66 10.6% 5.1% 1,858
25.5 1四十八2.1% 4.8% 1,969
二十六2 68 2.9% 4.6% 2,088
26.5 6 61 9.8% 4.3% 2,214
二十七1 79 1.3% 4.1% 2,347
27.5 6 73 8.2% 3.9% 2,488
二十八6 108 5.6% 3.7% 2,638
28.5 5 57 8.8% 3.5% 2,796
二十九2 52 3.8% 3.3% 2,965
29.5 1 45 2.2% 3.1% 3,143
三十1 50 2.0% 2.9% 3,332
30.5 3四十七6.4% 2.8% 3,533
31 2 54 3.7% 2.6% 3,745

要计算热门球队获胜的概率，只需取弱队在同一场比赛中获胜概率与100%之间的差值即可。例如，一支7分的弱队预计获胜概率为30.6%。因此，一支7分的热门球队获胜概率为100%-30.6% = 69.4%。

需要注意的是，估算概率并未考虑关键数字。例如，2.5分和3.5分的弱势球队之间的获胜概率差异，很可能高于估算概率栏中建议的42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8%。

我还根据主场或客场弱势球队来观察这条曲线，但并未发现统计上存在足够大的差异，需要进行特殊处理。

下图说明了实际和估计的获胜概率。

购买额外积分

下表显示了根据公平让分盘口，在不计算平局的情况下，额外获得0.5到2.5分的获胜概率。例如，你认为某支球队的公平让分盘口为+3，但有人给你+3.5，那么你的获胜概率就是53.42%。

弱队获胜的概率（以点差计算）

传播0.5 分1.0 分1.5 分2.0 分2.5 分
-21 0.520918 0.536281 0.551179 0.558373 0.565335
-20.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.538615 0.545809 0.558769
-20 0.515827 0.523484 0.530910 0.544301 0.557260
-19.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.529368 0.542759 0.558504
-19 0.507889 0.522142 0.535964 0.552234 0.567979
-18.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.545731 0.562001 0.568052
-18 0.514684 0.532002 0.548795 0.555047 0.561098
-17.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.541612 0.547864 0.553831
-17 0.517841 0.524496 0.530949 0.537114 0.543082
-16.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.519874 0.526040 0.544503
-16 0.506856 0.513418 0.519782 0.538860 0.557322
-15.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.533015 0.552092 0.560656
-15 0.506761 0.527067 0.546758 0.555606 0.564170
-14.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.550359 0.559207 0.567110
-14 0.520920 0.530338 0.539471 0.547638 0.555541
-13.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.527551 0.535717 0.544988
-13 0.509703 0.518395 0.526824 0.536404 0.545675
-12.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.527535 0.537115 0.555027
-12 0.508955 0.519152 0.529040 0.547548 0.565460
-11.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.539805 0.558313 0.563415
-11 0.510505 0.530205 0.549309 0.554580 0.559682
-10.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.545437 0.550708 0.559247
-10 0.520296 0.525907 0.531348 0.540171 0.548710
-9.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.520499 0.529322 0.554459
-9 0.505781 0.515172 0.524279 0.550252 0.575390
-8.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.545876 0.571850 0.582682
-8 0.509675 0.537321 0.564131 0.575324 0.586157
-7.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.567682 0.578875 0.588874
-7 0.528483 0.540396 0.551950 0.562281 0.572279
-6.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.534852 0.545183 0.559015
-6 0.512274 0.523271 0.533934 0.548227 0.562059
-5.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.537078 0.551370 0.581534
-5 0.511329 0.526542 0.541294 0.572461 0.602625
-4.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.563056 0.594223 0.604564
-4 0.515673 0.548847 0.581017 0.591702 0.602043
-3.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.578381 0.589065 0.601917
-3 0.534178 0.545551 0.556579 0.569858 0.582709
-2.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.536796 0.550075 0.554541
-2 0.511717 0.525851 0.539557 0.544172 0.548638
-1.5 0.514561 0.528695 0.533459 0.538074 0.550925
-1 0.514561 0.519473 0.524237 0.537516 0.550367
0 0.505061 0.519194 0.532901 0.543586 0.553926
1 0.514561 0.525934 0.536963 0.568130 0.598294
1.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.555260 0.586428 0.600260
2 0.511717 0.544891 0.577062 0.591354 0.605186
2.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.582104 0.596396 0.606395
3 0.534178 0.549390 0.564143 0.574474 0.584472
3.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.541549 0.551880 0.562713
4 0.515673 0.526669 0.537333 0.548526 0.559359
4.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.533879 0.545072 0.570209
5 0.511329 0.523243 0.534796 0.560770 0.585907
5.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.550998 0.576972 0.585510
6 0.512274 0.539921 0.566731 0.575553 0.584092
6.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.565236 0.574058 0.579160
7 0.528483 0.537874 0.546980 0.552252 0.557354
7.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.524507 0.529779 0.547691
8 0.509675 0.515286 0.520728 0.539235 0.557147
8.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.530496 0.549004 0.558275
9 0.505781 0.525481 0.544584 0.554164 0.563435
9.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.549884 0.559463 0.567367
10 0.520296 0.530492 0.540380 0.548547 0.556450
10.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.529131 0.537297 0.545861
11 0.510505 0.519197 0.527626 0.536475 0.545038
11.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.526781 0.535629 0.554092
12 0.508955 0.518373 0.527507 0.546584 0.565046
12.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.538813 0.557890 0.563857
十三0.509703 0.530009 0.549700 0.555866 0.561833
13.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.547589 0.553755 0.559806
14 0.520920 0.527482 0.533846 0.540098 0.546149
14.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.519777 0.526029 0.541775
15 0.506761 0.513416 0.519869 0.536138 0.551884
15.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.530304 0.546573 0.559533
16 0.506856 0.524173 0.540967 0.554358 0.567317
16.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.548981 0.562372 0.569334
17 0.517841 0.532095 0.545917 0.553110 0.560072
17.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.536363 0.543557 0.557525
18 0.514684 0.522341 0.529767 0.544200 0.558168
18.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.530443 0.544877 0.563338
19 0.507889 0.523251 0.538149 0.557225 0.575686
19.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.550880 0.569956
20 0.515827 0.536132 0.555822
20.5 0.520918 0.541223
21 0.520918

上表的实际用途是购买额外的半点。如果您下注 120（而不是通常的 110），大多数赌场都会给您额外的半点。下表显示了五个最佳让分盘口的获胜概率和预期价值，这些让分盘口可以用来购买半点。假设让分盘口公平，下注 110 的赌场优势为 4.76%，那么仅从 3、7、10 和 14 的让分盘口购买额外的半点就值得了。

购买半点让分盘的价值

传播概率。
赢		预期的
价值
3 53.42% -2.07%
7 52.85% -3.11%
14 52.09% -4.50%
10 52.03% -4.61%
17 51.78% -5.06%

预告片

让分盘基本上是一种骗人的赌注。在恰当的情况下，加上丰厚的赔率，它们或许是个不错的选择。然而，对于随意选择让分盘的休闲博彩玩家来说，它们的价值就很低了。

对于那些不了解的人来说，让分盘就像过关投注一样，只不过在大学橄榄球比赛中，玩家每场比赛可以获得6到7.5个额外积分。这些额外积分的赢利远低于过关投注。

为了开始我的分析，下表显示了以 6 到 7.5 个额外分数赢得每场比赛的概率，并根据玩家是否在挑逗边、低于、高于或做“Wong”挑逗，我将立即解释。

每轮预选赛获胜概率

积分边在下面超过黄
6 65.39% 65.39% 63.31% 71.57%
6.5 66.49% 66.47% 64.34%
7 67.72% 67.58% 65.47%
7.5 68.87% 68.63% 66.67%

在进一步阐述之前，我先解释一下什么是“黄氏让分盘”（Wong Teaser）。据我所知，这个想法最早出现在斯坦福·黄（Stanford Wong）的著作《精明体育博彩》（Sharp Sports Betting）中。黄氏正确地指出，3和7是NFL中最常见的两个胜率差距。他建议对这两个关键数字进行让分盘。它只适用于+1.5到+2.5以及-7.5到-8.5的公平让分。例如，将+2的弱队让分盘口调至+8，允许球队以射门得分或达阵得分输掉比赛，但仍然可以覆盖让分盘。

虽然这可以通过让分盘中的任意点数来实现，但只有六点让分盘才值得，因为降低的赔付可以获得超过六点的点数。

话虽如此，下表显示了根据我所见过的不同选择和支付次数以及所预测的投注类型得出的六分盘口预期价值。

6分盘口预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过黄
2 5到6 -21.60% -21.62% -26.52% -6.08%
2 1 -14.48% -14.49% -19.84% 2.45%
3 1.4 -32.89% -32.91% -39.10% -12.00%
3 1.6 -27.30% -27.32% -34.03% -4.67%
3 1.7 -24.50% -24.52% -31.49% -1.01%
3 1.8 -21.71% -21.73% -28.95% 2.66%
4 2.5 -36.00% -36.03% -43.77% -8.15%
4 2.8 -30.52% -30.54% -38.95% -0.28%
4 3 -26.86% -26.89% -35.74% 4.97%
5 4 -40.22% -40.24% -49.15% -6.09%
5 4.5 -34.24% -34.27% -44.06% 3.30%
6 6 -45.27% -45.30% -54.93% -5.90%
6 6.5 -41.36% -41.39% -51.71% 0.82%
6 7 -37.45% -37.49% -48.49% 7.54%
7 9 -48.87% -48.91% -59.24% -3.78%
7 10 -43.76% -43.80% -55.16% 5.84%
8 10 -63.22% -63.25% -71.61% -24.25%
8 12 -56.54% -56.57% -66.45% -10.48%

如您所见，上表中有很多非常负的预期值。少数正的预期值只出现在黄牌让分盘中，而且只有在赔率最高的情况下才有，这种情况很难找到。在Coast/Boyd赌场，可以找到赔率最高、预期值最高的黄牌让分盘。

我还应该指出，我的数据中只有1780场比赛的点差在黄牌过关盘区间内。我给出的黄牌过关盘获胜概率为71.57%，这个数字应该算比较粗略，标准差为1.70%。其他研究让我相信，黄牌过关盘在任何一局比赛中获胜的概率更接近68.9%。

下表显示了6.5分让分盘的预期价值。如前所述，黄牌让分盘仅在买入6分时有效，因此6.5、7和7.5分的表格中省略了该列。

6.5分盘口的预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 10至13 -21.80% -21.83% -26.77%
2 5到6 -18.96% -19.00% -24.12%
2 10到11 -15.61% -15.65% -20.98%
3 1.2 -35.35% -35.39% -41.42%
3 1.5 -26.53% -26.58% -33.43%
3 1.6 -23.59% -23.64% -30.76%
4 2 -41.38% -41.43% -48.60%
4 2.5 -31.61% -31.67% -40.04%
4 3 -21.84% -21.91% -31.47%
5 3.5 -41.54% -41.61% -50.40%
5 4 -35.05% -35.12% -44.89%
5 4.5 -28.55% -28.63% -39.38%
6 5 -48.18% -48.25% -57.45%
6 5.5 -43.86% -43.93% -53.91%
6 6 -39.54% -39.62% -50.36%
6 7 -30.91% -31.00% -43.27%
7 8 -48.32% -48.40% -58.94%
7 9 -42.58% -42.67% -54.38%
8 9 -61.82% -61.89% -70.65%
8 10 -58.01% -58.08% -67.71%
8 12 -50.37% -50.46% -61.84%

下表显示了 7 分制大学橄榄球预告片的预期值。

7分盘口预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 5到7 -21.39% -21.70% -26.53%
2 10至13 -18.87% -19.19% -24.17%
2 5到6 -15.93% -16.27% -21.42%
3 1 -37.89% -38.27% -43.88%
3 1.2 -31.68% -32.09% -38.27%
3 1.4 -25.47% -25.92% -32.66%
3 1.5 -22.37% -22.83% -29.85%
4 1.8 -41.12% -41.59% -48.57%
4 2 -36.92% -37.42% -44.89%
4 2.5 -26.40% -26.99% -35.71%
5 3 -43.04% -43.61% -51.90%
5 3.5 -35.92% -36.56% -45.88%
6 4 -51.79% -52.36% -60.63%
6 5 -42.14% -42.84% -52.76%
6 6 -32.50% -33.31% -44.89%
7 6.5 -51.03% -51.71% -61.34%
7 7 -47.76% -48.49% -58.77%
7 8 -41.23% -42.05% -53.61%
8 9 -55.78% -56.49% -66.26%
8 12 -42.52% -43.43% -56.13%

下表显示了 7.5 分大学橄榄球预告片的预期值。

7.5分盘口的预期价值

腿支付边在下面超过
2 5到7 -18.68% -19.26% -23.81%
2 2到3 -20.94% -21.50% -25.93%
3 1.2 -28.13% -28.89% -34.81%
3 1.5 -18.33% -19.19% -25.93%
4 1.8 -37.00% -37.89% -44.69%
4 2 -32.50% -33.45% -40.74%
5 3 -38.01% -39.10% -47.33%
5 3.5 -30.27% -31.49% -40.74%
6 4 -46.64% -47.76% -56.10%
6 5 -35.96% -37.31% -47.33%
7 7 -41.19% -42.63% -53.18%
8 10 -44.31% -45.87% -57.08%

总结一下大学橄榄球预告片的话题，除非你每场比赛都有 6 分预告片，并且能够获得自由的 Coast/Boyd 赌场赔率，否则请远离它们。

数据

本次分析使用的数据来自1996年至2013年的12,231场大学橄榄球比赛。我之所以从1996年开始分析，是因为当时引入了加时赛规则，以消除平局。当时的数据相当粗糙，所以我不得不剔除掉很多包含不合理信息的比赛，比如让分差为-100、大小分盘为负、每节得分总和低于全场总分，或者比赛以平局结束。我确信其中肯定有一些不准确的数据，但我相信绝大多数数据都还不错。

撰写者: Michael Shackleford