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NFL 积分买卖赔率专家
简介
此页面显示了在NFL比赛中,买入或卖出最多1.5分的合理价格,该价格基于点差和总分。一个实际应用是,当体育博彩公司允许您将分值调整最多1.5分时。当然,买入分值需要支付更多,卖出分值则需要支付更多。Pinnacle体育博彩就是一个很好的例子。您需要登录才能操作,但他们提供了一个滑动工具栏,用于调整买入和卖出最多1.5分时的调整价格。另一个实际应用是确定两条赔率中哪一条更优。例如,赔率相同时+3,或者赔率相同时+3.5和-120。
下表显示了根据公平点差,您买卖不超过1.5点的合理价格。例如,如果一个投注在-10等额投注时公平,那么在+122时-11.5、+116时-11、+109时-10.5、-109时-9.5、-111时-9以及-113时-8.5也同样公平。它也回答了上面提出的问题,即+3等额投注与在-120时+3.5的投注一样公平。此外,它还表明,对于点差为7的点差中的半点(例如,从-7.5到-7、-7到-6.5、+6.5到+7以及+7到+7.5),值得支付10点。因此,如果您无论如何都要以 7 分差投注 110,那么最好以半分投注 120,这是许多体育博彩公司允许的。
根据点差买入和卖出点
传播 | 卖出 1.5 | 卖出 1.0 | 卖出 0.5 | 购买 0.5 | 购买 1.0 | 购买 1.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-14 | 117 | 114 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
-13.5 | 127 | 123 | 112 | -105 | -109 | -111 |
-13 | 129 | 117 | 105 | -105 | -106 | -108 |
-12.5 | 122 | 109 | 105 | -102 | -103 | -110 |
-12 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -108 | -114 |
-11.5 | 108 | 103 | 102 | -106 | -112 | -123 |
-11 | 109 | 108 | 106 | -106 | -116 | -125 |
-10.5 | 114 | 112 | 106 | -109 | -118 | -121 |
-10 | 122 | 116 | 109 | -109 | -111 | -113 |
-9.5 | 126 | 118 | 109 | -102 | -104 | -108 |
-9 | 120 | 111 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
-8.5 | 113 | 104 | 102 | -104 | -109 | -122 |
-8 | 108 | 106 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -128 |
-7.5 | 111 | 109 | 104 | -111 | -123 | -133 |
-7 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -119 | -127 |
-6.5 | 129 | 123 | 111 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
-6 | 131 | 120 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
-5.5 | 128 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
-5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
-4。5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -141 |
-4 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -131 | -154 |
-3.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -122 | -144 | -151 |
-3 | 137 | 129 | 120 | -120 | -125 | -130 |
-2.5 | 156 | 144 | 122 | -104 | -108 | -114 |
-2 | 150 | 127 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
-1.5 | 133 | 108 | 104 | -105 | -109 | -110 |
-1 | 113 | 109 | 105 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
0 | 110 | 105 | 房子 | 房子 | -105 | -110 |
1 | 105 | 105 | 105 | -105 | -109 | -113 |
1.5 | 110 | 109 | 105 | -104 | -108 | -133 |
2 | 114 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -127 | -150 |
2.5 | 114 | 108 | 104 | -122 | -144 | -156 |
3 | 130 | 125 | 120 | -120 | -129 | -137 |
3.5 | 151 | 144 | 122 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
4 | 154 | 131 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
4.5 | 141 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
5.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -128 |
6 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -120 | -131 |
6.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -111 | -123 | -129 |
7 | 127 | 119 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
7.5 | 133 | 123 | 111 | -104 | -109 | -111 |
8 | 128 | 116 | 104 | -104 | -106 | -108 |
8.5 | 122 | 109 | 104 | -102 | -104 | -113 |
9 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -111 | -120 |
9.5 | 108 | 104 | 102 | -109 | -118 | -126 |
10 | 113 | 111 | 109 | -109 | -116 | -122 |
10.5 | 121 | 118 | 109 | -106 | -112 | -114 |
11 | 125 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -108 | -109 |
11.5 | 123 | 112 | 106 | -102 | -103 | -108 |
12 | 114 | 108 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
12.5 | 110 | 103 | 102 | -105 | -109 | -122 |
十三 | 108 | 106 | 105 | -105 | -117 | -129 |
13.5 | 111 | 109 | 105 | -112 | -123 | -127 |
14 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -114 | -117 |
下表列出了总买入点和卖出点。
总分买入和卖出分
全部的 | 卖出 1.5 | 卖出 1.0 | 卖出 0.5 | 购买 0.5 | 购买 1.0 | 购买 1.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
33 | 113 | 111 | 108 | -108 | -116 | -123 |
33.5 | 120 | 117 | 108 | -107 | -114 | -120 |
三十四 | 125 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
34.5 | 124 | 114 | 107 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
三十五 | 119 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -113 |
35.5 | 117 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -108 | -121 |
三十六 | 113 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -127 |
36.5 | 113 | 108 | 104 | -111 | -122 | -130 |
三十七 | 119 | 115 | 110 | -110 | -117 | -124 |
37.5 | 127 | 122 | 111 | -106 | -112 | -116 |
三十八 | 129 | 118 | 106 | -106 | -110 | -113 |
38.5 | 125 | 112 | 106 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
三十九 | 116 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -116 |
39.5 | 113 | 107 | 103 | -106 | -112 | -122 |
40 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -124 |
40.5 | 116 | 112 | 106 | -108 | -117 | -121 |
41 | 121 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -112 | -115 |
41.5 | 125 | 117 | 108 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
四十二 | 121 | 112 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
42.5 | 116 | 107 | 103 | -107 | -113 | -122 |
43 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -123 |
43.5 | 117 | 113 | 107 | -108 | -115 | -125 |
四十四 | 122 | 115 | 107 | -107 | -116 | -124 |
44.5 | 124 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -120 |
45 | 124 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
45.5 | 125 | 115 | 108 | -104 | -108 | -117 |
46 | 120 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -113 | -121 |
46.5 | 116 | 108 | 104 | -108 | -117 | -125 |
四十七 | 117 | 112 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -122 |
47.5 | 122 | 117 | 108 | -106 | -113 | -120 |
四十八 | 124 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -113 | -119 |
48.5 | 123 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
49 | 119 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
49.5 | 119 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -111 | -124 |
50 | 118 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -117 | -128 |
50.5 | 118 | 111 | 106 | -111 | -122 | -133 |
51 | 123 | 117 | 110 | -110 | -120 | -129 |
51.5 | 129 | 122 | 111 | -108 | -117 | -122 |
52 | 131 | 120 | 108 | -108 | -113 | -118 |
2010 年超级碗示例
让我们来看一个来自Pinnacle Sports调整后的2010年超级碗赔率的例子。默认赔率是圣徒队+5.5 -106,小马队-5.5 -102。下表显示了圣徒队的赔率。第一列显示可用的让分盘口。第二列显示Pinnacle在每个让分盘口提供的赔率。第三列显示公平赔率。这些赔率可以从我的表格中找到,然后减去2。减去2的原因是圣徒队略微被看好,赔率为+5.5。第四列显示预期值。请注意,所有调整后的赔率都不会比投注默认赔率+5.5更有价值。
圣徒队的 Pinnacle Sports 赔率
传播 | 巅峰 线 | 公平的 线 | 预期的 价值 |
---|---|---|---|
+7 | -144 | -130 | -4.16% |
+6.5 | -124 | -116 | -2.93% |
+6 | -116 | -109 | -2.86% |
+5.5 | -106 | -102 | -1.87% |
+5 | -103 | 101 | -1.92% |
+4.5 | 100 | 104 | -1.91% |
+4 | 107 | 112 | -2.13% |
下表大致相同,但针对的是小马队。在本例中,我在公平赔率上增加了2分,因为小马队在5.5的让分盘口下略逊一筹。该表显示,卖出1.5分,以+128的赔率投注7分比以-106的赔率投注5.5分更划算。所有投注的预期价值仍然为负。但是,如果你的让分盘技巧让你无论如何都会以-5.5 -102的赔率投注小马队,那么你最好以-7 +128的赔率投注他们。
Pinnacle Sports 为小马队提供赔率
传播 | 巅峰 线 | 公平的 线 | 预期的 价值 |
---|---|---|---|
-7 | 128 | 130 | -0.96% |
-6.5 | 110 | 116 | -2.84% |
-6 | 103 | 109 | -2.90% |
-5.5 | -102 | 102 | -1.96% |
-5 | -110 | -101 | -4.09% |
-4.5 | -114 | -104 | -4.35% |
-4 | -122 | -112 | -4.07% |
除了超级碗之外,我还查看了Pinnacle(平博)对其他一些NFL比赛的赔率。总的来说,我认为Pinnacle(平博)在设置替代让分盘方面做得不错。有时我会觉得比默认1.5分的让分盘更有价值,但不足以抵消抽水。我的建议是,如果你无论如何都要在Pinnacle(平博)上下注,最好先看看1.5分的让分盘是否更有价值。
方法论
上面的表格是基于 1983 年至 2009 年 NFL 赛季的数据。为了获得通过买卖给定点差或总分赢得比赛的合理概率,我查看了所有与该点差或总分相差 3 分以内的比赛,以了解买卖点数对最终比分的影响频率。
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免责声明
归根结底,橄榄球是和真人一起玩的,而不是靠统计数据。与其他运动相比,NFL 每年的比赛场次相对较少,这导致了样本量较小的问题。所以,包括我在内的任何人关于橄榄球博彩的建议都应该谨慎对待。
有人或许会认为,总分的大小也应该被考虑在内。我不太同意这种观点,但我尊敬的其他体育博彩玩家认为,在总分较低的比赛中,买卖点数的影响更为显著。我没有考虑到这一点。
撰写者: Michael Shackleford