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NFL 积分买卖赔率专家

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NFL 积分买卖赔率专家

此页面显示了在NFL比赛中,买入或卖出最多1.5分的合理价格,该价格基于点差和总分。一个实际应用是,当体育博彩公司允许您将分值调整最多1.5分时。当然,买入分值需要支付更多,卖出分值则需要支付更多。Pinnacle体育博彩就是一个很好的例子。您需要登录才能操作,但他们提供了一个滑动工具栏,用于调整买入和卖出最多1.5分时的调整价格。另一个实际应用是确定两条赔率中哪一条更优。例如,赔率相同时+3,或者赔率相同时+3.5和-120。

下表显示了根据公平点差,您买卖不超过1.5点的合理价格。例如,如果一个投注在-10等额投注时公平,那么在+122时-11.5、+116时-11、+109时-10.5、-109时-9.5、-111时-9以及-113时-8.5也同样公平。它也回答了上面提出的问题,即+3等额投注与在-120时+3.5的投注一样公平。此外,它还表明,对于点差为7的点差中的半点(例如,从-7.5到-7、-7到-6.5、+6.5到+7以及+7到+7.5),值得支付10点。因此,如果您无论如何都要以 7 分差投注 110,那么最好以半分投注 120,这是许多体育博彩公司允许的。

根据点差买入和卖出点

传播卖出 1.5卖出 1.0卖出 0.5购买 0.5购买 1.0购买 1.5
-14 117 114 111 -111 -116 -121
-13.5 127 123 112 -105 -109 -111
-13 129 117 105 -105 -106 -108
-12.5 122 109 105 -102 -103 -110
-12 111 106 102 -102 -108 -114
-11.5 108 103 102 -106 -112 -123
-11 109 108 106 -106 -116 -125
-10.5 114 112 106 -109 -118 -121
-10 122 116 109 -109 -111 -113
-9.5 126 118 109 -102 -104 -108
-9 120 111 102 -102 -106 -111
-8.5 113 104 102 -104 -109 -122
-8 108 106 104 -104 -116 -128
-7.5 111 109 104 -111 -123 -133
-7 121 116 111 -111 -119 -127
-6.5 129 123 111 -107 -114 -118
-6 131 120 107 -107 -110 -113
-5.5 128 114 107 -103 -106 -114
-5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
-4。5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -141
-4 113 110 107 -107 -131 -154
-3.5 118 114 107 -122 -144 -151
-3 137 129 120 -120 -125 -130
-2.5 156 144 122 -104 -108 -114
-2 150 127 104 -104 -109 -114
-1.5 133 108 104 -105 -109 -110
-1 113 109 105 -105 -105 -105
0 110 105房子房子-105 -110
1 105 105 105 -105 -109 -113
1.5 110 109 105 -104 -108 -133
2 114 109 104 -104 -127 -150
2.5 114 108 104 -122 -144 -156
3 130 125 120 -120 -129 -137
3.5 151 144 122 -107 -114 -118
4 154 131 107 -107 -110 -113
4.5 141 114 107 -103 -106 -114
5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
5.5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -128
6 113 110 107 -107 -120 -131
6.5 118 114 107 -111 -123 -129
7 127 119 111 -111 -116 -121
7.5 133 123 111 -104 -109 -111
8 128 116 104 -104 -106 -108
8.5 122 109 104 -102 -104 -113
9 111 106 102 -102 -111 -120
9.5 108 104 102 -109 -118 -126
10 113 111 109 -109 -116 -122
10.5 121 118 109 -106 -112 -114
11 125 116 106 -106 -108 -109
11.5 123 112 106 -102 -103 -108
12 114 108 102 -102 -106 -111
12.5 110 103 102 -105 -109 -122
十三108 106 105 -105 -117 -129
13.5 111 109 105 -112 -123 -127
14 121 116 111 -111 -114 -117

下表列出了总买入点和卖出点。

总分买入和卖出分

全部的卖出 1.5卖出 1.0卖出 0.5购买 0.5购买 1.0购买 1.5
33 113 111 108 -108 -116 -123
33.5 120 117 108 -107 -114 -120
三十四125 116 107 -107 -112 -116
34.5 124 114 107 -104 -109 -114
三十五119 112 104 -104 -109 -113
35.5 117 109 104 -104 -108 -121
三十六113 109 104 -104 -116 -127
36.5 113 108 104 -111 -122 -130
三十七119 115 110 -110 -117 -124
37.5 127 122 111 -106 -112 -116
三十八129 118 106 -106 -110 -113
38.5 125 112 106 -103 -107 -114
三十九116 110 103 -103 -110 -116
39.5 113 107 103 -106 -112 -122
40 113 110 106 -106 -115 -124
40.5 116 112 106 -108 -117 -121
41 121 115 108 -108 -112 -115
41.5 125 117 108 -103 -107 -114
四十二121 112 103 -103 -110 -117
42.5 116 107 103 -107 -113 -122
43 113 110 106 -106 -115 -123
43.5 117 113 107 -108 -115 -125
四十四122 115 107 -107 -116 -124
44.5 124 115 108 -108 -115 -120
45 124 116 107 -107 -112 -116
45.5 125 115 108 -104 -108 -117
46 120 112 104 -104 -113 -121
46.5 116 108 104 -108 -117 -125
四十七117 112 108 -108 -115 -122
47.5 122 117 108 -106 -113 -120
四十八124 116 106 -106 -113 -119
48.5 123 113 106 -106 -112 -118
49 119 113 106 -106 -112 -118
49.5 119 112 106 -106 -111 -124
50 118 112 106 -106 -117 -128
50.5 118 111 106 -111 -122 -133
51 123 117 110 -110 -120 -129
51.5 129 122 111 -108 -117 -122
52 131 120 108 -108 -113 -118

2010 年超级碗示例

让我们来看一个来自Pinnacle Sports调整后的2010年超级碗赔率的例子。默认赔率是圣徒队+5.5 -106,小马队-5.5 -102。下表显示了圣徒队的赔率。第一列显示可用的让分盘口。第二列显示Pinnacle在每个让分盘口提供的赔率。第三列显示公平赔率。这些赔率可以从我的表格中找到,然后减去2。减去2的原因是圣徒队略微被看好,赔率为+5.5。第四列显示预期值。请注意,所有调整后的赔率都不会比投注默认赔率+5.5更有价值。

圣徒队的 Pinnacle Sports 赔率

传播巅峰
线
公平的
线
预期的
价值
+7 -144 -130 -4.16%
+6.5 -124 -116 -2.93%
+6 -116 -109 -2.86%
+5.5 -106 -102 -1.87%
+5 -103 101 -1.92%
+4.5 100 104 -1.91%
+4 107 112 -2.13%

下表大致相同,但针对的是小马队。在本例中,我在公平赔率上增加了2分,因为小马队在5.5的让分盘口下略逊一筹。该表显示,卖出1.5分,以+128的赔率投注7分比以-106的赔率投注5.5分更划算。所有投注的预期价值仍然为负。但是,如果你的让分盘技巧让你无论如何都会以-5.5 -102的赔率投注小马队,那么你最好以-7 +128的赔率投注他们。

Pinnacle Sports 为小马队提供赔率

传播巅峰
线
公平的
线
预期的
价值
-7 128 130 -0.96%
-6.5 110 116 -2.84%
-6 103 109 -2.90%
-5.5 -102 102 -1.96%
-5 -110 -101 -4.09%
-4.5 -114 -104 -4.35%
-4 -122 -112 -4.07%

除了超级碗之外,我还查看了Pinnacle(平博)对其他一些NFL比赛的赔率。总的来说,我认为Pinnacle(平博)在设置替代让分盘方面做得不错。有时我会觉得比默认1.5分的让分盘更有价值,但不足以抵消抽水。我的建议是,如果你无论如何都要在Pinnacle(平博)上下注,最好先看看1.5分的让分盘是否更有价值。

方法论

上面的表格是基于 1983 年至 2009 年 NFL 赛季的数据。为了获得通过买卖给定点差或总分赢得比赛的合理概率,我查看了所有与该点差或总分相差 3 分以内的比赛,以了解买卖点数对最终比分的影响频率。

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免责声明

归根结底,橄榄球是和真人一起玩的,而不是靠统计数据。与其他运动相比,NFL 每年的比赛场次相对较少,这导致了样本量较小的问题。所以,包括我在内的任何人关于橄榄球博彩的建议都应该谨慎对待。

有人或许会认为,总分的大小也应该被考虑在内。我不太同意这种观点,但我尊敬的其他体育博彩玩家认为,在总分较低的比赛中,买卖点数的影响更为显著。我没有考虑到这一点。