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1983 年至 2003 年 NFL 比赛概要
简介
除非另有说明,本附录中的表格均基于 1983 年至 2003 年 NFL 赛季。在某些情况下,超级碗比赛不包含在内,因为这些表格是按主队和客队划分的,而且超级碗比赛是在中立场地进行的。这些表格是使用Mr. NFL (特别是售价 99 美元的 Access 数据库)创建的。
赛季总计
下表显示了自1983年以来的主场和客场总得分。右栏显示主队平均胜场数。右下角单元格显示主队平均多得2.94分。
NFL总得分
年 | 客场积分 | 主场积分 | 总分 | 平均分数 | 普通家庭 MOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 4840 | 5354 | 233 | 43.75 | 2.21 |
1984 | 4629 | 5227 | 233 | 42.30 | 2.57 |
1985 | 4430 | 5533 | 233 | 42.76 | 4.73 |
1986 | 4452 | 5110 | 233 | 41.04 | 2.82 |
1987 | 4561 | 4958 | 219 | 43.47 | 1.81 |
1988 | 4359 | 5042 | 233 | 40.35 | 2.93 |
1989 | 4453 | 5209 | 233 | 41.47 | 3.24 |
1990 | 4257 | 5195 | 235 | 40.22 | 3.99 |
1991 | 4043 | 4888 | 235 | 38.00 | 3.60 |
1992 | 4083 | 4784 | 235 | 37.73 | 2.98 |
1993 | 4098 | 4811 | 235 | 37.91 | 3.03 |
1994 | 4572 | 5016 | 235 | 40.8 | 1.89 |
1995 | 5167 | 5721 | 251 | 43.38 | 2.21 |
1996 | 4619 | 5673 | 251 | 41.00 | 4.20 |
1997 | 4816 | 5553 | 251 | 41.31 | 2.94 |
1998 | 4901 | 5816 | 251 | 42.70 | 3.65 |
1999 | 4979 | 5817 | 259 | 41.68 | 3.24 |
2000 | 4928 | 5715 | 259 | 41.09 | 3.04 |
2001 | 4969 | 5531 | 259 | 40.54 | 2.17 |
2002 | 5484 | 6173 | 267 | 43.66 | 2.58 |
2003 | 5100 | 6058 | 267 | 41.79 | 3.59 |
2004 | 5308 | 6029 | 265 | 42.78 | 2.72 |
2005 | 4999 | 5948 | 266 | 41.15 | 3.57 |
2006 | 5408 | 5676 | 267 | 41.51 | 1.00 |
全部的 | 113455 | 130837 | 5905 | 41.37 | 2.94 |
半场总分
表 2-A — 各赛季半场平均值
季节 | 客队上半场 | 主场半场 1 | 总计 半场 1 | 客队 半场 2 | 主场半场 2 | 半场总计 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 9.94 | 11.59 | 21.53 | 10.88 | 11.33 | 22.21 |
1984 | 10 | 11.18 | 21.18 | 9.88 | 11.19 | 21.07 |
1985 | 8.91 | 12.08 | 20.99 | 10.14 | 11.57 | 21.72 |
1986 | 8.96 | 11.5 | 20.46 | 10.14 | 10.36 | 20.5 |
1987 | 10.33 | 11.58 | 21.91 | 10.4 | 11.11 | 21.52 |
1988 | 9.47 | 11.37 | 20.84 | 9.25 | 10.28 | 19.53 |
1989 | 8.84 | 11.44 | 20.28 | 10.12 | 10.97 | 21.09 |
1990 | 9.08 | 11.53 | 20.61 | 9.03 | 10.59 | 19.62 |
1991 | 8.27 | 10.48 | 18.75 | 8.85 | 10.31 | 19.15 |
1992 | 8.05 | 10.37 | 18.42 | 9.32 | 9.85 | 19.18 |
1993 | 8.84 | 10.26 | 19.1 | 8.55 | 10.24 | 18.79 |
1994 | 9.68 | 11.16 | 20.83 | 9.75 | 10.07 | 19.82 |
1995 | 10.54 | 11.94 | 22.48 | 10.02 | 10.87 | 20.9 |
1996 | 9.13 | 12.09 | 21.22 | 9.26 | 10.46 | 19.72 |
1997 | 9.39 | 11.38 | 20.77 | 9.78 | 10.7 | 20.48 |
1998 | 9.67 | 11.9 | 21.57 | 9.8 | 11.29 | 21.09 |
1999 | 9.48 | 12.03 | 21.51 | 9.73 | 10.46 | 20.19 |
2000 | 9.33 | 11.31 | 20.64 | 9.64 | 10.81 | 20.45 |
2001 | 9.48 | 10.54 | 20.02 | 9.72 | 10.82 | 20.53 |
2002 | 10.02 | 11.75 | 21.77 | 10.52 | 11.27 | 21.79 |
2003 | 9.64 | 11.66 | 21.29 | 9.43 | 11 | 20.42 |
全部的 | 9.39 | 11.39 | 20.78 | 9.72 | 10.74 | 20.47 |
这张图表显示,上半场主场优势为2.01分,下半场仅为1.02分。图表还显示,尽管加时赛也计入下半场,但上半场比下半场高出0.32分。
表 2-B 显示了两队在上下半场的总得分分布。本图表中加时赛计算在下半场。
表 2-B — 半场总分
半场总分 | 上半场号码 | 下半场号码 | 编号两半 | 概率上半场 | 概率下半场 | 两半概率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1138 | 1292 | 2430 | 11.19% | 12.7% | 11.94% |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
2 | 7 | 20 | 二十七 | 0.07% | 0.2% | 0.13% |
3 | 1222 | 918 | 2140 | 12.01% | 9.02% | 10.52% |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
5 | 23 | 17 | 40 | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.2% |
6 | 630 | 520 | 1150 | 6.19% | 5.11% | 5.65% |
7 | 1520 | 1735 | 3255 | 14.94% | 17.06% | 16% |
8 | 11 | 77 | 88 | 0.11% | 0.76% | 0.43% |
9 | 168 | 242 | 410 | 1.65% | 2.38% | 2.02% |
10 | 1475 | 1220 | 2695 | 14.5% | 11.99% | 13.25% |
11 | 8 | 四十八 | 56 | 0.08% | 0.47% | 0.28% |
12 | 71 | 90 | 161 | 0.7% | 0.88% | 0.79% |
十三 | 562 | 571 | 1133 | 5.52% | 5.61% | 5.57% |
14 | 1002 | 1200 | 2202 | 9.85% | 11.8% | 10.82% |
15 | 19 | 77 | 96 | 0.19% | 0.76% | 0.47% |
16 | 138 | 184 | 322 | 1.36% | 1.81% | 1.58% |
17 | 756 | 626 | 1382 | 7.43% | 6.15% | 6.79% |
18 | 12 | 46 | 58 | 0.12% | 0.45% | 0.29% |
19 | 33 | 54 | 87 | 0.32% | 0.53% | 0.43% |
20 | 271 | 247 | 518 | 2.66% | 2.43% | 2.55% |
21 | 405 | 429 | 834 | 3.98% | 4.22% | 4.1% |
22 | 15 | 三十二 | 四十七 | 0.15% | 0.31% | 0.23% |
23 | 53 | 58 | 111 | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.55% |
24 | 267 | 199 | 466 | 2.62% | 1.96% | 2.29% |
二十五 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.1% |
二十六 | 十三 | 16 | 二十九 | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.14% |
二十七 | 79 | 50 | 129 | 0.78% | 0.49% | 0.63% |
二十八 | 133 | 114 | 247 | 1.31% | 1.12% | 1.21% |
二十九 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.05% |
三十 | 20 | 8 | 二十八 | 0.2% | 0.08% | 0.14% |
31 | 55 | 二十九 | 84 | 0.54% | 0.29% | 0.41% |
三十二 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 0.05% | 0.02% |
33 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
三十四 | 10 | 3 | 十三 | 0.1% | 0.03% | 0.06% |
三十五 | 23 | 12 | 三十五 | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.17% |
三十六 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
三十七 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
三十八 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.05% |
三十九 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
41 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
四十二 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.02% | 0% | 0.01% |
43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
四十四 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
45 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.03% | 0% | 0.01% |
46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
四十七 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
四十八 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01% | 0% | 0% |
50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
全部的 | 10172 | 10172 | 20344 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
季度总计
以下是每支球队每节的平均得分:
- 第一季度:4.04
- 第二季度:6.35
- 第三季度:4.39
- 第四季度:5.73
胜利的差距
表 3 — 胜负差距
胜利的差距 | 样品总计 | 可能性 |
---|---|---|
0 | 2 | 0.07% |
1 | 97 | 3.58% |
2 | 97 | 3.58% |
3 | 431 | 15.89% |
4 | 127 | 4.68% |
5 | 82 | 3.02% |
6 | 139 | 5.12% |
7 | 259 | 9.55% |
8 | 86 | 3.17% |
9 | 四十八 | 1.77% |
10 | 163 | 6.01% |
11 | 76 | 2.80% |
12 | 40 | 1.47% |
十三 | 97 | 3.58% |
14 | 131 | 4.83% |
15 | 三十五 | 1.29% |
16 | 40 | 1.47% |
17 | 102 | 3.76% |
18 | 59 | 2.17% |
19 | 三十五 | 1.29% |
20 | 67 | 2.47% |
21 | 84 | 3.10% |
22 | 二十七 | 1.00% |
23 | 二十五 | 0.92% |
24 | 63 | 2.32% |
二十五 | 三十二 | 1.18% |
二十六 | 14 | 0.52% |
二十七 | 45 | 1.66% |
二十八 | 46 | 1.70% |
二十九 | 14 | 0.52% |
三十 | 12 | 0.44% |
31 | 33 | 1.22% |
三十二 | 十三 | 0.48% |
33 | 8 | 0.29% |
三十四 | 16 | 0.59% |
三十五 | 14 | 0.52% |
三十六 | 4 | 0.15% |
三十七 | 10 | 0.37% |
三十八 | 14 | 0.52% |
三十九 | 2 | 0.07% |
40 | 2 | 0.07% |
41 | 9 | 0.33% |
四十二 | 2 | 0.07% |
43 | 1 | 0.04% |
四十四 | 1 | 0.04% |
45 | 3 | 0.11% |
46 | 2 | 0.07% |
四十七 | 0 | 0.00% |
四十八 | 1 | 0.04% |
49 | 2 | 0.07% |
50 | 0 | 0.00% |
51 | 0 | 0.00% |
52 | 0 | 0.00% |
53 | 0 | 0.00% |
54 | 0 | 0.00% |
55 | 0 | 0.00% |
56 | 0 | 0.00% |
57 | 0 | 0.00% |
58 | 0 | 0.00% |
59 | 1 | 0.04% |
全部的 | 2713 | 100.00% |
我希望通过这张表格来表达胜负分差分布的不均衡性。例如,23.42% 的胜负分差是 3 分或 7 分。这解释了为什么体育博彩公司在将让分调整为 3 分或 7 分或使其偏离让分时进展缓慢。它在过关投注、过关卡和购买半分盘中也有实际应用。在过关投注中,胜负分差最好跨越 3 分和 7 分,例如,将 8 分的热门球队过关为 2 分的热门球队。在过关卡中,胜负分差最好跨越 3 分或 7 分,例如,如果一支球队在过关卡上为 -2.5 分,但变为 -3.5 分,这表明热门球队的投注机会很多,在 -2.5 分时投注是不错的选择。购买半分盘时,它显示了以 3 分让分买入的价值,例如,将让分盘从 -3 移动到 -2.5,尽管很少允许以 3 分让分买入。
主场弱队
表 4 — 主场弱势盘口让分盘
季节 | 损失 | 赢 | 领带 | 胜率 | 电动汽车一角硬币线 | EV镍线 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 33 | 31 | 1 | 51.56% | -1.54% | 0.66% |
1984 | 三十五 | 四十二 | 2 | 45.45% | -12.89% | -10.97% |
1985 | 四十二 | 三十五 | 2 | 54.55% | 4.03% | 6.33% |
1986 | 三十八 | 三十六 | 2 | 51.35% | -1.91% | 0.25% |
1987 | 三十八 | 三十二 | 0 | 54.29% | 3.64% | 5.99% |
1988 | 三十 | 二十九 | 1 | 50.85% | -2.88% | -0.71% |
1989 | 三十五 | 三十六 | 1 | 49.3% | -5.81% | -3.7% |
1990 | 33 | 三十二 | 3 | 50.77% | -2.94% | -0.84% |
1991 | 四十二 | 三十六 | 5 | 53.85% | 2.63% | 4.82% |
1992 | 四十四 | 三十九 | 0 | 53.01% | 1.2% | 3.5% |
1993 | 三十七 | 33 | 4 | 52.86% | 0.86% | 3.02% |
1994 | 三十 | 二十八 | 4 | 51.72% | -1.17% | 0.92% |
1995 | 四十二 | 三十七 | 1 | 53.16% | 1.48% | 3.75% |
1996 | 40 | 二十五 | 0 | 61.54% | 17.48% | 20.15% |
1997 | 三十六 | 33 | 3 | 52.17% | -0.38% | 1.79% |
1998 | 三十九 | 33 | 3 | 54.17% | 3.27% | 5.52% |
1999 | 54 | 40 | 5 | 57.45% | 9.18% | 11.54% |
2000 | 三十九 | 三十七 | 1 | 51.32% | -2.01% | 0.19% |
2001 | 41 | 三十五 | 6 | 53.95% | 2.77% | 4.94% |
2002 | 51 | 三十六 | 1 | 58.62% | 11.78% | 14.29% |
2003 | 三十七 | 三十四 | 4 | 52.11% | -0.48% | 1.65% |
2004 | 40 | 40 | 2 | 50% | -4.43% | -2.32% |
2005 | 二十七 | 四十八 | 3 | 36% | -30.07% | -28.57% |
2006 | 46 | 三十二 | 2 | 58.97% | 12.27% | 14.76% |
2007 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 51.14% | -2.32% | -0.16% |
全部的 | 974 | 882 | 58 | 52.48% | 0.18% | 2.38% |
在我看来,这张表格相当引人注目。它显示,主场弱队在让分盘口的胜率为52.48%,不包括平局。如果每场比赛都押主场弱队,那么在10美分盘口下注的利润为0.18%,而在5美分盘口下注的利润为2.38%。
客场弱队
表 5 — 主场优势与差价
季节 | 损失 | 赢 | 领带 | 胜率 | 电动汽车一角硬币线 | EV镍线 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 86 | 72 | 7 | 54.43% | 3.75% | 6% |
1984 | 81 | 70 | 1 | 53.64% | 2.39% | 4.7% |
1985 | 63 | 83 | 2 | 43.15% | -17.38% | -15.54% |
1986 | 82 | 70 | 3 | 53.95% | 2.93% | 5.22% |
1987 | 81 | 61 | 3 | 57.04% | 8.71% | 11.13% |
1988 | 85 | 80 | 2 | 51.52% | -1.63% | 0.57% |
1989 | 82 | 71 | 4 | 53.59% | 2.26% | 4.52% |
1990 | 70 | 89 | 2 | 44.03% | -15.75% | -13.87% |
1991 | 70 | 79 | 1 | 46.98% | -10.24% | -8.22% |
1992 | 72 | 72 | 3 | 50% | -4.45% | -2.33% |
1993 | 86 | 70 | 3 | 55.13% | 5.15% | 7.49% |
1994 | 88 | 75 | 4 | 53.99% | 2.99% | 5.28% |
1995 | 85 | 76 | 5 | 52.8% | 0.77% | 2.98% |
1996 | 82 | 95 | 3 | 46.33% | -11.36% | -9.39% |
1997 | 88 | 72 | 12 | 55% | 4.65% | 6.87% |
1998 | 72 | 94 | 8 | 43.37% | -16.41% | -14.61% |
1999 | 83 | 74 | 3 | 52.87% | 0.91% | 3.15% |
2000 | 94 | 79 | 5 | 54.34% | 3.63% | 5.91% |
2001 | 82 | 80 | 9 | 50.62% | -3.19% | -1.11% |
2002 | 90 | 82 | 3 | 52.33% | -0.1% | 2.12% |
2003 | 89 | 93 | 4 | 48.9% | -6.5% | -4.43% |
2004 | 95 | 80 | 5 | 54.29% | 3.54% | 5.82% |
2005 | 80 | 101 | 6 | 44.2% | -15.12% | -13.27% |
2006 | 103 | 77 | 4 | 57.22% | 9.04% | 11.46% |
2007 | 77 | 86 | 9 | 47.24% | -9.3% | -7。36% |
全部的 | 2066 | 1981 | 111 | 51.05% | -2.47% | -0.32% |
这张表格显示,主场热门球队的让分盘赔率为48.82%,不包括平局。因此,表4和表5表明,无论主客场,狗队总体上都是更好的选择。如果用一角硬币投注客场狗队,赌场优势为2.23%,如果用五分硬币投注客场狗队,赌场优势为0.07%。
主队投注
主场投注
季节 | 赢 | 损失 | 领带 | 主场胜率 | 回报(-110) | 返回(-105) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 106 | 119 | 8 | 47.11% | -9.72% | -7.75% |
1984 | 106 | 124 | 3 | 46.09% | -11.86% | -9.89% |
1985 | 129 | 100 | 4 | 56.33% | 7.41% | 9.81% |
1986 | 110 | 118 | 5 | 48.25% | -7.73% | -5.68% |
1987 | 100 | 116 | 3 | 46.3% | -11.46% | -9.48% |
1988 | 112 | 118 | 3 | 48.7% | -6.94% | -4.86% |
1989 | 109 | 119 | 5 | 47.81% | -8.54% | -6.52% |
1990 | 124 | 106 | 5 | 53.91% | 2.86% | 5.15% |
1991 | 121 | 108 | 6 | 52.84% | 0.85% | 3.08% |
1992 | 117 | 115 | 3 | 50.43% | -3.68% | -1.52% |
1993 | 109 | 119 | 7 | 47.81% | -8.47% | -6.46% |
1994 | 108 | 119 | 8 | 47.58% | -8.86% | -6.87% |
1995 | 123 | 122 | 6 | 50.2% | -4.06% | -1.94% |
1996 | 139 | 109 | 3 | 56.05% | 6.92% | 9.32% |
1997 | 111 | 125 | 15 | 47.03% | -9.6% | -7.68% |
1998 | 134 | 106 | 11 | 55.83% | 6.3% | 8.61% |
1999 | 128 | 123 | 8 | 51% | -2.56% | -0.42% |
2000 | 120 | 132 | 6 | 47.62% | -8.88% | -6.87% |
2001 | 124 | 119 | 15 | 51.03% | -2.43% | -0.35% |
2002 | 134 | 127 | 4 | 51.34% | -1.96% | 0.23% |
2003 | 132 | 126 | 8 | 51.16% | -2.26% | -0.11% |
2004 | 120 | 139 | 7 | 46.33% | -11.24% | -9.29% |
2005 | 128 | 129 | 9 | 49.81% | -4.75% | -2.67% |
2006 | 125 | 136 | 6 | 47.89% | -8.38% | -6.35% |
2007 | 133 | 122 | 11 | 52.16% | -0.41% | 1.75% |
全部的 | 3002 | 2996 | 169 | 50.05% | -4.33% | -2.22% |
这表明主队的表现略好于客队。
弱势投注
弱势投注
季节 | 赢 | 损失 | 领带 | 弱势方胜率 | 回报(-110) | 返回(-105) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 119 | 103 | 8 | 53.6% | 2.25% | 4.49% |
1984 | 116 | 112 | 3 | 50.88% | -2.83% | -0.66% |
1985 | 105 | 118 | 4 | 47.09% | -9.93% | -7.93% |
1986 | 120 | 106 | 5 | 53.1% | 1.34% | 3.59% |
1987 | 119 | 93 | 3 | 56.13% | 7.06% | 9.46% |
1988 | 115 | 109 | 3 | 51.34% | -1.96% | 0.23% |
1989 | 117 | 107 | 5 | 52.23% | -0.28% | 1.93% |
1990 | 103 | 121 | 5 | 45.98% | -11.95% | -10% |
1991 | 112 | 115 | 6 | 49.34% | -5.66% | -3.58% |
1992 | 116 | 111 | 3 | 51.1% | -2.41% | -0.23% |
1993 | 123 | 103 | 7 | 54.42% | 3.78% | 6.07% |
1994 | 118 | 103 | 8 | 53.39% | 1.87% | 4.1% |
1995 | 127 | 113 | 6 | 52.92% | 1% | 3.23% |
1996 | 122 | 120 | 3 | 50.41% | -3.71% | -1.55% |
1997 | 124 | 105 | 15 | 54.15% | 3.17% | 5.37% |
1998 | 111 | 127 | 11 | 46.64% | -10.48% | -8.55% |
1999 | 137 | 114 | 8 | 54.58% | 4.07% | 6.36% |
2000 | 133 | 116 | 6 | 53.41% | 1.93% | 4.18% |
2001 | 123 | 115 | 15 | 51.68% | -1.26% | 0.85% |
2002 | 141 | 118 | 4 | 54.44% | 3.87% | 6.19% |
2003 | 126 | 127 | 8 | 49.8% | -4.77% | -2.68% |
2004 | 135 | 120 | 7 | 52.94% | 1.04% | 3.27% |
2005 | 107 | 149 | 9 | 41.8% | -19.52% | -17.77% |
2006 | 149 | 109 | 6 | 57.75% | 10.02% | 12.46% |
2007 | 122 | 129 | 11 | 48.61% | -6.9% | -4.89% |
全部的 | 3040 | 2863 | 169 | 51.5% | -1.64% | 0.53% |
这表明,多年来,押让分的狗股表现明显优于热门股。如果所有狗股都押让分盘,赌场优势将达到 1.07%。如果所有狗股都押让分盘,玩家优势将达到 1.12%。
术语
一角钱线:通常的体育博彩标准要求下注 1.10 美元才能赢得 1.00 美元
分布:随机变量等于或小于给定值的概率。
Dog :Underdog 的缩写。指输球概率超过 50% 的球队。
EV :期望值。玩家每下注一个单位,预期能赢多少钱。
五分彩(Nickel Line) :投注者必须下注 1.05 美元才能赢得 1.00 美元。一些赌场会在“欢乐时光”提供五分彩投注,而Pinnacle 的海外体育博彩平台则一直提供 NFL 赛事的五分彩投注。
选择:两支实力相当的球队之间的比赛,分差为 0。
来源
斯坦福·黄 (Stanford Wong) 在《敏锐体育博彩》(Sharp Sports Betting)中也讨论了主队狗赌注的价值。
附录
附录 1列出了拉斯维加斯体育博彩的各个家族。