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NFL 预告片

警告

这个页面比较老旧,内容也比较有限。我建议你去看看我的NFL 转折投注页面。

介绍

让分盘与过关投注类似,玩家将多个投注组合在一起,只有所有投注都赢了,累积投注才算赢。让分盘与过关投注的不同之处在于,所有投注的让分都会向有利于玩家的方向移动指定的点数(通常为6到7点)。玩家需要支付的点数远低于过关投注。例如,两队过关投注的赔率通常为13比5,而两队6分让分盘的赔率通常为10比11。在让分盘中,每个投注都被称为“球队”。我一直觉得这很容易让人混淆,因为玩家也可以选择投注高于或低于。我个人更喜欢使用“选择”一词,但在本页中,我会交替使用“选择”和“球队”。

与过关投注一样,所有投注选项都必须获胜才能获胜。如果一场或多场赛事以平局结束,则这些选项将被忽略。例如,如果一个四队让分盘的结果是3胜1平,那么它将按三队让分盘获胜的赔率进行赔付。在极少数情况下,让分盘的投注选项减少到只有一个,通常也会算平局,因为没有单队让分盘这种说法。希腊互联网体育博彩公司是一个例外,它将任何输掉选项的让分盘视为输。否则,如果第一场比赛输了,不要放弃让分盘投注,因为即使其他所有选项的结果都是平局,它仍然算平局。

我们来看一个例子。旁边的图片是我在2004年做的一个让分盘投注。以下是那一周的正常让分:

  • 孟加拉虎 +2.5
  • 海盗队 -8
  • 酋长队 +2.5
  • 小马队 -8.5

然而,因为我做了一个 6 分的让分盘,所以所有的点差都向对我有利的方向移动了 6 分,如下:

  • 孟加拉虎 +8.5
  • 海盗队 -2
  • 酋长队 +8.5
  • 小马队 -2.5

如果我全部覆盖这四个让分盘,我的赔率应该是1赔3。自从我下了那个赌注之后,过关盘的赔率就下降了。比如,现在阳光海岸队4队6分过关盘的赔率只有2赔5。上面那个过关盘的结果是我赢了两场,输了两场,所以这个赌注输了。

单次选择获胜的概率

分析让分盘口的一个好方法是找出任何给定选项的胜率。我查看了2000年至2011赛季期间的每一场NFL常规赛。然后,我根据给定的分数以及选项是主队、客队、低于还是高于来筛选结果。“所有方”列是所有比赛双方在让分盘口下的平均值。

最常见的甜头牌会给玩家额外6分、6.5分或7分。不过,我也见过一些甜头牌,给出的分数非常特殊。为了完整起见,我分析了从0分到14分的所有甜头牌,尽管其中很多你永远都见不到。

预告平均概率

额外积分所有主页全部客场各方全部以下所有总计
14 85.85% 85.00% 85.43% 83.70% 87.44% 85.57%
13.5 84.89% 84.05% 84.47% 82.86% 86.69% 84.78%
十三84.16% 83.26% 83.71% 81.94% 85.78% 83.86%
12.5 83.15% 82.49% 82.82% 80.87% 84.85% 82.86%
12 82.43% 81.77% 82.10% 79.92% 83.73% 81.83%
11.5 81.48% 80.91% 81.20% 78.83% 82.81% 80.82%
11 80.74% 80.32% 80.53% 78.10% 82.09% 80.09%
10.5 79.53% 79.31% 79.42% 76.99% 81.01% 79.00%
10 78.32% 77.91% 78.11% 75.94% 79.59% 77.76%
9.5 76.82% 76.61% 76.71% 74.92% 78.39% 76.66%
9 75.88% 75.70% 75.79% 73.73% 77.39% 75.56%
8.5 74.74% 74.87% 74.81% 72.68% 76.12% 74.40%
8 73.65% 73.85% 73.75% 71.60% 74.75% 73.17%
7.5 72.28% 72.64% 72.46% 70.36% 73.14% 71.75%
7 71.06% 71.56% 71.31% 69.03% 71.61% 70.31%
6.5 69.67% 70.03% 69.85% 67.71% 69.88% 68.79%
6 68.09% 68.48% 68.28% 66.24% 68.18% 67.21%
5.5 66.30% 66.61% 66.45% 65.11% 66.73% 65.92%
5 64.97% 65.46% 65.21% 63.91% 65.69% 64.80%
4.5 63.66% 64.19% 63.93% 62.73% 64.54% 63.63%
4 62.15% 62.78% 62.47% 61.50% 63.16% 62.33%
3.5 60.31% 61.16% 60.73% 59.86% 61.53% 60.69%
3 58.95% 59.69% 59.32% 58.53% 59.80% 59.17%
2.5 57.52% 58.33% 57.92% 57.16% 58.25% 57.70%
2 56.08% 57.21% 56.65% 55.69% 56.73% 56.21%
1.5 54.56% 56.13% 55.35% 54.32% 55.13% 54.72%
1 53.11% 54.84% 53.98% 52.91% 53.38% 53.14%
0.5 51.47% 53.17% 52.32% 51.46% 51.71% 51.58%
0 49.13% 50.87% 50.00% 50.03% 49.97% 50.00%

上面的表格告诉我们什么?对于常见的6到7分的让分盘,客队的表现略好于主队。此外,表格还显示,大分盘略好于小分盘。最重要的是,让分盘的胜负比让分盘的胜负要好得多。

我在“拉斯维加斯巫师”网站上的体育博彩评论显示了所有主要体育博彩公司在过分让分盘上的赔付情况。下表显示了所有已知赔率表下,所有单边和总过分让分盘中6分、6.5分和7分过分让分盘的预期回报。

6分预告回归

6分过关盘

精选支付侧面总计
2 10到11 -10.99% -13.77%
2 5到6 -14.52% -17.19%
3 9点到5点-10.86% -15.00%
3 8点到5点-17.23% -21.07%
3 7点到5点-23.60% -27.14%
4 3比1 -13.05% -18.39%
4 14 至 5 -17.40% -22.47%
4 13点到5点-21.75% -26.55%
4 5比2 -23.92% -28.59%
4 12点到5点-26.09% -30.63%
4 17至10 -41.31% -44.91%
5 5比1 -10.95% -17.73%
5 9点到2点-18.37% -24.58%
5 4比1 -25.79% -31.44%
5 3比1 -40.63% -45.15%
6 7比1 -18.92% -26.28%
6 13比2 -23.99% -30.88%
6 6比1 -29.06% -35.49%
6 9点到2点-44.26% -49.31%
7 11比1 -16.96% -25.68%
7 10比1 -23.88% -31.87%
7 9比1 -30.80% -38.06%
7 8比1 -37.72% -44.26%
7 7比1 -44.64% -50.45%
8 15比1 -24.40% -33.40%
8 12比1 -38.58% -45.89%
8 10比1 -48.03% -54.21%

6.5 分预告回归

6.5分预告

精选支付侧面总计
2 5到6 -10.56% -13.23%
2 10至13 -13.69% -16.27%
2 10至14 -16.37% -18.87%
3 8点到5点-11.40% -15.35%
3 3比2 -14.81% -18.60%
3 29至20 -16.51% -20.23%
3 7点到5点-18.22% -21.86%
3 6点到5点-25.03% -28.37%
4 5比2 -16.70% -21.60%
4 12点到5点-19.08% -23.84%
4 11点到5点-23.84% -28.32%
4 2比1 -28.60% -32.80%
5 4比1 -16.88% -22.95%
5 7比2 -25.19% -30.66%
6 7比1 -7.11% -15.19%
6 6比1 -18.72% -25.79%
6 11比2 -24.52% -31.10%
6 5比1 -30.33% -36.40%
7 9比1 -18.89% -27.07%
7 8比1 -27.01% -34.36%
8 12比1 -26.36% -34.78%
8 10比1 -37.69% -44.81%
8 9比1 -43.35% -49.83%

7 分预告回归

7分过关盘

精选支付侧面总计
2 10至13 -10.03% -12.53%
2 5到7 -12.83% -15.25%
2 2到3 -15.25% -17.60%
3 3比2 -9.34% -13.09%
3 7点到5点-12.97% -16.57%
3 13至10 -16.60% -20.04%
3 6点到5点-20.22% -23.52%
3 1比1 -27.48% -30.47%
4 2比1 -22.42% -26.67%
4 9点到5点-27.60% -31.56%
5 7比2 -17.02% -22.66%
5 3比1 -26.24% -31.25%
5 5比2 -35.46% -39.85%
6 5比1 -21.10% -27.49%
6 9点到2点-27.68% -33.53%
6 4比1 -34.25% -39.58%
7 8比1 -15.61% -23.52%
7 7比1 -24.98% -32.02%
7 13比2 -29.67% -36.27%
7 6比1 -34.36% -40.52%
8 11比1 -19.76% -28.30%
8 10比1 -26.45% -34.28%
8 9比1 -33.13% -40.25%
8 8比1 -39.82% -46.23%

如你所见,大多数情况下,随机投注的变式投注会带来很高的赌场优势。根据经验,变式投注是比较容易上当的。不过,只要掌握一些技巧,你就能获得对你有利的赔率。

黄的预告片

到目前为止,NFL 中最常见的两个胜负分差是 3 分和 7 分。我的体育博彩附录 2列出了每个胜负分差的概率。简而言之,15.9% 的 NFL 比赛分差恰好是 3 分,9.6% 的比赛分差是 7 分。

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斯坦福·黄(Stanford Wong)在其杰作《精明体育博彩》(Sharp Sports Betting)中指出,如果用6分让分盘(Teater)来跨越3分和7分的胜负分差,玩家就能获得优势。然而,这本书如今已有些过时,自出版以来,所谓的“黄氏让分盘”(Wong Teasers)的成绩并不理想。让我们重新审视一下它们。再次强调,本页所有结果均基于2000年第一周至2010年第四周的常规赛。

黄的预告片

赌注胜利游戏胜率标准差
主场弱势90 126 71.43% 3.98%
最爱的家居用品109 144 75.69% 3.72%
客场弱势124 170 72.94% 3.42%
客场热门31四十八64.58% 6.44%
所有家199 270 73.70% 2.72%
全部离开155 218 71.10% 3.02%
所有弱势群体214 296 72.30% 2.59%
所有收藏140 192 72.92% 3.22%
全部354 488 72.54% 2.02%

上表显示,黄牌让分盘的胜率在64.58%到75.69%之间。我倾向于认为这只是随机变量,72.54%的整体胜率才是关键数据。下表显示了黄牌让分盘根据参赛队伍数量和胜率的预期回报。

黄传情预期回报

精选支付预期回报
2 10到11 0.46%
2 5到6 -3.53%
3 9点到5点6.88%
3 8点到5点-0.75%
3 7点到5点-8.39%
4 3比1 10.76%
4 14 至 5 5.22%
4 13点到5点-0.31%
4 5比2 -3.08%
4 12点到5点-5.85%
4 17至10 -25.24%
5 5比1 20.52%
5 9点到2点10.48%
5 4比1 0.44%
5 3比1 -19.65%
6 7比1 16.57%
6 13比2 9.29%
6 6比1 2.00%
6 9点到2点-19.86%
7 11比1 26.84%
7 10比1 16.27%
7 9比1 5.70%
7 8比1 -4.87%
7 7比1 -15.44%
8 15比1 22.68%
8 12比1 -0.32%
8 10比1 -15.65%

上表显示,赔率为10比11的经典两队让分盘几乎不再有效,玩家优势约为0.5%。要想获得值得争取的优势,你至少需要三支球队和优质赔率。这里是内华达州,我上次在2010年查看时,在Leroy's体育博彩公司,你获得优质Wong让分盘的最佳机会是赔率为3比1的四队让分盘。你可以使用我的拉斯维加斯体育博彩团体页面,查找哪些案例有Leroy's的投注点。

预告卡

我并没有检查过所有的让分盘,但我发现那些我检查过的让分盘都很糟糕。以博伊德游戏公司的“超级让分盘”为例。在2010年10月18日的周一晚间橄榄球比赛中,他们开出的让分盘是泰坦队+5,美洲虎队+12。平局总是赢,而且每个让分盘都是偶数,所以泰坦队+5.5,美洲虎队+12.5的让分盘赔率是一样的。这在数学上相当于9分让分盘。下表显示了随机投注者的赔率表、中奖概率和预期回报。

博伊德超级预告片

精选支付(一人)概率获胜预期回报
4 2 32.99% -34.01%
5 2.5 25.00% -37.49%
6 3.5 18.95% -33.67%
7 4.5 14.36% -35.37%
8 6 10.89% -34.69%
9 7.5 8.25% -38.13%
10 9.5 6.25% -40.60%
11 12 4.74% -43.14%
12 15 3.59% -46.13%
十三20 2.72% -45.56%
14二十五2.06% -48.43%
15三十1.56% -53.10%

最终结果是,这张超级让分盘卡是个糟糕的赌注。你可能会说,如果玩家只投中关键点数会怎么样?我发现这没什么用。更糟糕的是,他们只给玩家8.5分,而公平地说,他们应该给玩家比边注更高的分数。

季前预告

大多数体育博彩公司不允许季前赛的让分盘。不过,如果你找到一家允许的博彩公司,我认为黄氏让分盘是个不错的选择。这是因为很多比赛的让分盘在1.5到2.5之间,而且这些比赛通常得分较低,胜负差距很小。我没有季前赛的数据,所以这只是一些经验建议。
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  • 附录 1关于谁拥有拉斯维加斯最佳线路的比较研究。
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  • 附录6遗失及过期的机票。
  • 附录 7与附录 1 配套,展示了来自几家互联网体育博彩公司的 NFL 赔率线对。
  • 附录 8关于谁拥有最佳海上航线的比较研究。
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